Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Flamengo SP vs Independente SP Prediction & H2H Stats

Brazil Brazil

Paulista B
Flamengo SP Logo

Flamengo SP

1 - 0
FT
Independente SP Logo

Independente SP

Our Tip

Match Events

38' Event
Erick
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

First leg ended 2-0. The second leg ended 1-0.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

49%
Flamengo SP
15%
Draws
36%
Independente SP
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Flamengo SP

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

15% / Low Confidence
  • Independente SP carry the better recent record into this one.
  • 36% — that's where the model lands on Flamengo SP taking it.
  • Independente SP arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
  • Historical meetings favor Independente SP, who have won 2 of the last 5 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 50%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30.400000000000002%
Flamengo SP Clean Sheet 68%
Independente SP Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Flamengo SP Independente SP
Matches Played 34 33
Wins 18 20
Draws 9 4
Losses 7 9
Goals Scored 1.32 2.27
Goals Conceded 0.85 1.03
Expected Goals (xG) 0.88 1.94
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 2, 2026 Paulista B
Independente SP vs Flamengo SP
2:0
Jul 25, 2026 Paulista B
Flamengo SP vs Independente SP
1:0
May 31, 2025 Paulista B
Flamengo SP vs Independente SP
2:4
Apr 27, 2025 Paulista B
Independente SP vs Flamengo SP
2:2
Mar 26, 2017 Paulista A3
Flamengo SP vs Independente SP
1:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Flamengo SP Compare

Top Goalscorer Erick
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.44

Independente SP Compare

Avg xG / game 1.76
Avg xA / game 1.08

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Flamengo SP 46 / 100
Independente SP 44 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Flamengo SP Independente SP

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Games between these two average 3.20 goals.

Flamengo SP found the back of the net in 79% of recent matches (34 games).

Independente SP has conceded goals in 70% of their last 33 outings.

Flamengo SP went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Flamengo SP VS Independente SP
1.13 Goals Scored 3.5
0.38 Goals Conceded 0.63
25% Over 1.5 75%
25% Over 2.5 38%
13% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Flamengo SP

(Home)
02 Aug
Independente SP
2 : 0
Flamengo SP
25 Jul
Flamengo SP
1 : 0
Independente SP
18 Jul
Flamengo SP
3 : 1
Matonense
11 Jul
Matonense
0 : 1
Flamengo SP
04 Jul
Flamengo SP
2 : 1
Audax-SP
Page 1 of 7

Independente SP

(Away)
16 Aug
Independente SP
4 : 1
America SP
09 Aug
America SP
2 : 0
Independente SP
02 Aug
Independente SP
2 : 0
Flamengo SP
25 Jul
Flamengo SP
1 : 0
Independente SP
19 Jul
Independente SP
2 : 1
Paulinense
Page 1 of 7

Tournament Bracket & Draw

1/8-finals
Independente SP 4
Tupa 0
Paulinense 3
Sao Carlos 0
Flamengo SP 2
Audax-SP 1
Matonense 1
Assisense 0
Itaqua 6
Paulinia FU 1
Maua FC 3
Uniao Mogi 5
Jose Bonifacio EC 4
Manthiqueira 1
America SP 3
Santacruzense 0
Quarter-finals
Independente SP 3
Paulinense 1
Flamengo SP 4
Matonense 1
Itaqua 5
Uniao Mogi 1
Jose Bonifacio EC 2
America SP 4
Semi-finals
Independente SP 2
Flamengo SP 1
Itaqua 1
America SP 4
Final
Independente SP 4
America SP 3