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Flamengo SP vs XV de Jau

Brazil Brazil

Paulista A4 2022
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Flamengo SP in this Paulista A4 2022 tie, finishing 2-1. One-off knockout football delivers a decisive result.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

46%
Flamengo SP
15%
Draws
39%
XV de Jau
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Flamengo SP

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

15% / Low Confidence
  • Flamengo SP have won more games recently than XV de Jau.
  • Win probability leans Flamengo SP's way, sitting at 36%.
  • Flamengo SP have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Flamengo SP, who have won 1 of the last 3 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • Flamengo SP have won 2 of the last 3 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 67%
Flamengo SP Clean Sheet 20%
XV de Jau Clean Sheet 14%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Flamengo SP XV de Jau
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 15 13
Draws 9 8
Losses 6 9
Goals Scored 1.2 0.93
Goals Conceded 0.87 0.73
Expected Goals (xG) 1.06 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 21, 2022 Paulista A4
Flamengo SP vs XV de Jau
2:1
Aug 12, 2022 Paulista A4
XV de Jau vs Flamengo SP
1:0
Feb 15, 2012 Paulista A3
XV de Jau vs Flamengo SP
1:3

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Flamengo SP 36 / 100
XV de Jau 33 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Flamengo SP XV de Jau

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Flamengo SP scored in 77% of their last 30 outings.

Games between these two average 2.67 goals.

Recent resilience: Flamengo SP stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

Defensive concern: XV de Jau conceded in 53% of 30 recent games.

Scoring Trends

Flamengo SP VS XV de Jau
1.38 Goals Scored 1.25
0.75 Goals Conceded 0.75
63% Over 1.5 50%
38% Over 2.5 25%
13% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Flamengo SP

(Home)
02 Aug
Independente SP
2 : 0
Flamengo SP
25 Jul
Flamengo SP
1 : 0
Independente SP
18 Jul
Flamengo SP
3 : 1
Matonense
11 Jul
Matonense
0 : 1
Flamengo SP
04 Jul
Flamengo SP
2 : 1
Audax-SP
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XV de Jau

(Away)
18 Apr
Marilia
3 : 2
XV de Jau
12 Apr
XV de Jau
0 : 0
Marilia
05 Apr
XV de Jau
2 : 0
Rio Claro
28 Mar
Rio Claro
0 : 1
XV de Jau
21 Mar
Desportivo
1 : 2
XV de Jau
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Tournament Bracket & Draw

Quarter-finals
Inter de Bebedouro 2
Sao-Carlense 2
Penapolense 2
Itapirense 3
XV de Jau 2
Flamengo SP 2
AA Itarare 1
Gremio Prudente 5
Semi-finals
Sao-Carlense 1
Itapirense 1
Flamengo SP 1
Gremio Prudente 2
Final
Itapirense 0
Gremio Prudente 3