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Floresta EC vs Ceara

Brazil Brazil

Cearense Domingão, Horizonte
Our Tip

Match Events

13'
Fernandinho
17' Event
Ramos R.
Assist: Lucca
40' Event
Vina

AI Match Summary

First leg ended 4-0. The second leg ended 0-3.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

28%
Floresta EC
35%
Draws
37%
Ceara
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Ceara

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

37% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Ceara come out ahead of Floresta EC on wins alone.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 39% draw probability.
  • Ceara arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
  • Historical meetings favor Ceara, who have won 2 of the last 5 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • These two have met 5 times recently and Ceara have taken 5 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 29.6%
Floresta EC Clean Sheet 24%
Ceara Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Floresta EC Ceara
Matches Played 29 34
Wins 9 14
Draws 9 9
Losses 11 11
Goals Scored 0.9 1.56
Goals Conceded 1.1 1.09
Expected Goals (xG) 1.00 0.94
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 22, 2026 Cearense
Ceara vs Floresta EC
4:0
Feb 15, 2026 Cearense
Floresta EC vs Ceara
0:3
Jan 10, 2026 Cearense
Floresta EC vs Ceara
0:1
Jan 27, 2024 Cearense
Ceara vs Floresta EC
1:0
Apr 11, 2019 Cearense
Ceara vs Floresta EC
3:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Floresta EC Compare

Avg xG / game 0.77
Avg xA / game 0.5

Ceara Compare

Top Goalscorer Vina
2 Goals
Assists Leader Ramos R.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.85
Avg xA / game 0.52

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Floresta EC 33 / 100
Ceara 41 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Floresta EC Ceara

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick CEA Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Floresta EC scored in 62% of their last 29 games.

Defensive concern: Ceara conceded in 71% of 34 recent games.

H2H data points to 2.40 goals as a typical output.

Floresta EC went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Floresta EC VS Ceara
0.75 Goals Scored 0.63
1.25 Goals Conceded 1.25
63% Over 1.5 75%
50% Over 2.5 25%
13% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Floresta EC

(Home)
09 Aug
Ypiranga FC
4 : 1
Floresta EC
27 Jul
Floresta EC
1 : 1
Maringa FC
11 Jul
SER Caxias do Sul
0 : 0
Floresta EC
04 Jul
Guarani
0 : 0
Floresta EC
27 Jun
Floresta EC
2 : 1
Barra FC (Santa Catarina)
Page 1 of 6

Ceara

(Away)
07 Aug
Ceara
2 : 0
Ponte Preta
26 Jul
Sao Bernardo
3 : 4
Ceara
22 Jul
Ceara
0 : 1
CRB
17 Jul
America MG
1 : 1
Ceara
13 Jul
Ceara
0 : 0
Athletic Club
Page 1 of 7

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Semi-finals
Ferroviario 0
Fortaleza 4
Floresta EC 0
Ceara 7
Final
Fortaleza 3
Ceara 2
Ferroviario 1
Floresta EC 0