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Floresta EC vs Maranhao

Brazil Brazil

Serie C Domingão, Horizonte
Our Tip

Match Events

9' Event
Vagalume
(Penalty)
24' Event
Felipe Cruz
26'
Will

AI Match Summary

Maranhao in this Serie C matchup, with the score ending 1-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored Maranhao.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

33%
Floresta EC
20%
Draws
47%
Maranhao
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Maranhao

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

47% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Floresta EC lately — more wins on the board than Maranhao.
  • 47% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 50%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 13%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 29.2%
Floresta EC Clean Sheet 22%
Maranhao Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Floresta EC Maranhao
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 10 9
Draws 8 8
Losses 11 13
Goals Scored 0.86 0.9
Goals Conceded 1.1 1.2
Expected Goals (xG) 0.81 1.06
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 4, 2026 Serie C
Floresta EC vs Maranhao
1:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Floresta EC Compare

Top Goalscorer Jeam
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.62
Avg xA / game 0.41

Maranhao Compare

Top Goalscorer Felipe Cruz
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.59

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Floresta EC 32 / 100
Maranhao 41 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Floresta EC Maranhao

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Maranhao Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Floresta EC found the back of the net in 62% of recent matches (29 games).

Maranhao let in goals in 70% of their last 30 matches.

These sides typically produce 3.00 goals when they meet.

Solid form: Floresta EC remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Floresta EC VS Maranhao
0.88 Goals Scored 1.25
0.88 Goals Conceded 0.75
50% Over 1.5 50%
25% Over 2.5 50%
13% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Floresta EC

(Home)
26 Sept
Floresta EC
1 : 1
Santa Cruz
20 Sept
Santa Cruz
1 : 0
Floresta EC
12 Sept
Botafogo PB
0 : 1
Floresta EC
06 Sept
Floresta EC
0 : 1
Maringa FC
29 Aug
Floresta EC
2 : 0
Ituano
Page 1 of 6

Maranhao

(Away)
29 Aug
Figueirense
2 : 1
Maranhao
23 Aug
Maranhao
4 : 1
Itabaiana
15 Aug
Santa Cruz
0 : 1
Maranhao
09 Aug
Maranhao
2 : 1
Brusque
25 Jul
Ferroviaria
0 : 0
Maranhao
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Botafogo PB 19 10 3 6 28:19 33
2 Brusque 19 9 5 5 28:22 32
3 Ferroviaria 19 8 6 5 22:15 30
4 Maringa FC 19 8 6 5 32:30 30
5 Floresta EC 19 8 6 5 22:20 30
6 Internacional de Limeira 19 8 6 5 22:20 30
7 Paysandu PA 19 9 2 8 26:27 29
8 Santa Cruz 19 8 5 6 20:15 29
9 Ypiranga FC 19 8 5 6 27:24 29
10 Guarani 19 7 7 5 34:24 28
11 Figueirense 19 7 7 5 19:22 28
12 Maranhao 19 7 6 6 19:18 27
13 Amazonas 19 7 5 7 21:23 26
14 SER Caxias do Sul 19 6 7 6 17:16 25
15 Ituano 19 6 4 9 18:21 22
16 Volta Redonda 19 6 3 10 13:25 21
17 Barra FC (Santa Catarina) 19 5 6 8 21:21 21
18 Anapolis 19 5 4 10 17:22 19
19 Itabaiana 19 4 5 10 14:27 17
20 Confianca 19 3 4 12 11:20 13
Promotion - Serie C (Second stage)
Relegation - Serie D 2027 (Main)