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Florgrade vs Guarda FC - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Portugal Portugal

Campeonato de Portugal - Group B
Our Tip

Match Events

40' Event
Semedo G.
(Penalty)

AI Match Summary

Florgrade in this Campeonato de Portugal - Group B matchup, with the score ending 1-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Florgrade.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

64%
Florgrade
15%
Draws
21%
Guarda FC
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Florgrade

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

64% / High Confidence
  • Florgrade have won more games recently than Guarda FC.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 39%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 65.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 28.400000000000002%
Florgrade Clean Sheet 68%
Guarda FC Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Florgrade Guarda FC
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 13 9
Draws 10 6
Losses 6 14
Goals Scored 1.17 1.1
Goals Conceded 0.97 1.03
Expected Goals (xG) 1.19 1.40
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 23, 2026 Campeonato de Portugal - Group B
Florgrade vs Guarda FC
1:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Florgrade 41 / 100
Guarda FC 30 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Florgrade Guarda FC

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Florgrade Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Florgrade found the back of the net in 83% of recent matches (29 games).

Guarda FC's defensive record shows goals conceded in 69% of 29 matches.

Solid form: Florgrade remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.

Away concern: Guarda FC has suffered 3 losses in 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Florgrade VS Guarda FC
1.25 Goals Scored 1.43
1.38 Goals Conceded 1.14
88% Over 1.5 43%
38% Over 2.5 43%
25% Over 3.5 43%

Recent Form & Match History

Florgrade

(Home)
27 Sept
Camacha
0 : 1
Florgrade
13 Sept
Florgrade
2 : 0
Sanjoanense
06 Sept
Camacha
1 : 0
Florgrade
30 Aug
Florgrade
1 : 0
Sao Joao de Ver
23 Aug
Florgrade
1 : 0
Guarda FC
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Guarda FC

(Away)
20 Sept
Guarda FC
2 : 3
Chaves
13 Sept
Guarda FC
2 : 2
Camacha
06 Sept
Uniao Lamas
1 : 0
Guarda FC
30 Aug
Ac. Fundao
0 : 6
Guarda FC
23 Aug
Florgrade
1 : 0
Guarda FC
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 UD Ovarense 4 4 0 0 8:0 12
2 Machico 4 2 2 0 5:2 8
3 Camacha 4 2 2 0 6:4 8
4 Castro Daire 4 2 1 1 5:3 7
5 Florgrade 4 2 1 1 4:2 7
6 SC Salgueiros 4 1 3 0 4:3 6
7 Cinfaes 4 1 2 1 6:5 5
8 Sanjoanense 4 1 2 1 5:5 5
9 Uniao Lamas 4 1 2 1 5:5 5
10 Beira Mar 4 0 3 1 4:6 3
11 FC Alpendorada 4 1 0 3 4:7 3
12 Estrela Calheta 4 0 2 2 2:8 2
13 Guarda FC 4 0 1 3 2:5 1
14 Sousense 4 0 1 3 3:8 1
Promotion - Campeonato de Portugal - Group A (Promotion Group)
Relegation - Campeonato de Portugal - Relegation Group 2026/2027 (Main)