Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Florgrade vs Vila Mea

Portugal Portugal

Campeonato de Portugal - Group B 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

10' Event
Pereira P.
(Penalty)
27'
Antonio Pereira Francisco J.
56' Event
Carvalho J. O.

AI Match Summary

The Campeonato de Portugal - Group B 2025/2026 game between Florgrade and Vila Mea finished 2-2.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

25%
Florgrade
35%
Draws
40%
Vila Mea
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Vila Mea

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

40% / Low Confidence
  • Vila Mea haven't matched Florgrade's recent run of results.
  • 40% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 34.400000000000006%
Florgrade Clean Sheet 21%
Vila Mea Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Florgrade Vila Mea
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 10 9
Draws 11 13
Losses 8 8
Goals Scored 1.03 1.17
Goals Conceded 1.03 1.1
Expected Goals (xG) 1.19 1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 25, 2026 Campeonato de Portugal - Group B
Florgrade vs Vila Mea
2:2
Aug 24, 2025 Campeonato de Portugal - Group B
Vila Mea vs Florgrade
0:0
Jan 7, 2024 Campeonato de Portugal - Group B
Florgrade vs Vila Mea
1:3
Aug 20, 2023 Campeonato de Portugal - Group B
Vila Mea vs Florgrade
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Florgrade Compare

Avg xG / game 0.92
Avg xA / game 0.59

Vila Mea Compare

Top Goalscorer Carvalho J. O.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Madureira J.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.03
Avg xA / game 0.63

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Florgrade 32 / 100
Vila Mea 41 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Florgrade Vila Mea

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Vila Mea Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Florgrade scored in 72% of their last 29 games.

Defensive concern: Vila Mea conceded in 67% of 30 recent games.

These sides typically produce 2.00 goals when they meet.

Florgrade has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Florgrade VS Vila Mea
1.25 Goals Scored 0.88
1.38 Goals Conceded 1.13
88% Over 1.5 50%
38% Over 2.5 25%
25% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Florgrade

(Home)
16 Aug
Uniao Lamas
1 : 1
Florgrade
18 Apr
Florgrade
2 : 1
Rebordosa
12 Apr
Aparecida
4 : 1
Florgrade
04 Apr
Florgrade
1 : 1
GD Resende
22 Mar
SC Salgueiros
2 : 0
Florgrade
Page 1 of 6

Vila Mea

(Away)
16 Aug
Ponte da Barca
1 : 2
Vila Mea
18 Apr
Vila Mea
0 : 0
Anadia
12 Apr
SC Vila Real
1 : 1
Vila Mea
04 Apr
CD Gouveia
3 : 2
Vila Mea
22 Mar
Vila Mea
1 : 0
Rebordosa
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Rebordosa 26 17 7 2 41:17 58
2 Leca 26 14 9 3 50:23 51
3 Cinfaes 26 10 10 6 33:21 40
4 Beira Mar 26 10 8 8 30:22 38
5 FC Alpendorada 26 9 11 6 30:22 38
6 Florgrade 26 9 10 7 28:28 37
7 Vila Mea 26 7 13 6 29:28 34
8 Uniao Lamas 26 9 6 11 27:33 33
9 SC Salgueiros 26 7 11 8 20:19 32
10 Anadia 26 7 9 10 27:33 30
11 Aparecida 26 9 4 13 36:51 28
12 GD Resende 26 6 10 10 27:31 28
13 SC Vila Real 26 5 12 9 23:30 27
14 CD Gouveia 26 1 4 21 14:57 7
Promotion - Campeonato de Portugal - Group A 2025/2026 (Promotion Group)