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Folgore Caratese vs Sondrio

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group B
Our Tip

Match Events

16' Event
Pino A.
Assist: Gjonaj E.
18' Event
Gjonaj E.
Assist: Castellano F.
23' Event
Tremolada L.
Assist: Gjonaj E.

AI Match Summary

Folgore Caratese in this Serie D - Group B matchup, with the score ending 5-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Folgore Caratese.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

36%
Folgore Caratese
30%
Draws
34%
Sondrio
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Folgore Caratese

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

66% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Folgore Caratese lately — more wins on the board than Sondrio.
  • Model gives Folgore Caratese a 36% chance of winning this.
  • Regular Serie D - Group B form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • These two have met 5 times recently and Folgore Caratese have taken 4 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 72.6%
Folgore Caratese Clean Sheet 17%
Sondrio Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Folgore Caratese Sondrio
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 15 9
Draws 10 7
Losses 5 14
Goals Scored 2 1.75
Goals Conceded 1 1
Expected Goals (xG) 2.00 1.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.00 1.00

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 2, 2026 Serie D - Group B
Folgore Caratese vs Sondrio
5:1
Dec 21, 2025 Serie D - Group B
Sondrio vs Folgore Caratese
0:3
Jan 19, 2025 Serie D - Group B
Folgore Caratese vs Sondrio
3:0
Sep 22, 2024 Serie D - Group B
Sondrio vs Folgore Caratese
1:2
Mar 11, 2020 Serie D - Group B
Folgore Caratese vs Sondrio
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Folgore Caratese Compare

Top Goalscorer Gjonaj E.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Pino A.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.54
Avg xA / game 1

Sondrio Compare

Top Goalscorer Vasil M.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.59
Avg xA / game 0.97

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Folgore Caratese 36 / 100
Sondrio 33 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Folgore Caratese Sondrio

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Folgore Caratese found the back of the net in 87% of recent matches (30 games).

Sondrio has conceded goals in 83% of their last 30 outings.

These sides typically produce 3.00 goals when they meet.

Folgore Caratese went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Folgore Caratese VS Sondrio
2 Goals Scored 1.75
1 Goals Conceded 1
88% Over 1.5 75%
50% Over 2.5 63%
38% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Folgore Caratese

(Home)
25 Jul
Arezzo
1 : 1
Folgore Caratese
17 May
Vado
3 : 0
Folgore Caratese
13 May
Folgore Caratese
2 : 0
Treviso
02 May
Folgore Caratese
5 : 1
Sondrio
26 Apr
Brusaporto
3 : 1
Folgore Caratese
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Sondrio

(Away)
02 May
Folgore Caratese
5 : 1
Sondrio
26 Apr
Sondrio
5 : 1
Real Calepina
19 Apr
Oltrepo
0 : 3
Sondrio
12 Apr
Sondrio
1 : 1
Caldiero Terme
02 Apr
Breno
2 : 1
Sondrio
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League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Folgore Caratese341911458:2768
2USD Casatese341613549:2861
3Chievo341861052:4360
4AC Milan U23341681062:3756
5AC Leon341411944:3453
6Brusaporto341561341:3851
7Oltrepo341581138:3650
8Scanzorosciate341114941:3347
9Villa Valle341381343:4647
10Ciserano-Bergamo3411131033:3146
11Caldiero Terme341015950:4045
12Real Calepina341191442:4742
13Castellanzese3410111341:3941
14Breno349111439:5138
15Pavia349101536:4737
16Varesina347151238:4436
17Sondrio34871937:6431
18Vogherese34282421:80-17
Promotion - Serie D - Group B (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie D - Group B (Play Out)