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Foligno vs Grassina

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group E 2020/2021
Our Tip

Match Events

42' Event
Colarieti L.

AI Match Summary

The Serie D - Group E 2020/2021 game between Foligno and Grassina finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Foligno.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

78%
Foligno
15%
Draws
7%
Grassina
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Foligno

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

78% / Very High Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Foligno come out ahead of Grassina on wins alone.
  • Foligno are the model's pick here, at 80%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 20%
Over 3.5 Goals 15%
Over 4.5 Goals 7%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30.8%
Foligno Clean Sheet 68%
Grassina Clean Sheet 14%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Foligno Grassina
Matches Played 36 30
Wins 15 4
Draws 9 11
Losses 12 15
Goals Scored 1.25 0.87
Goals Conceded 1.14 1.47
Expected Goals (xG) 1.04 0.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 7, 2021 Serie D - Group E
Foligno vs Grassina
1:0
Oct 18, 2020 Serie D - Group E
Grassina vs Foligno
0:2
Apr 5, 2020 Serie D - Group E
Foligno vs Grassina
0:0
Nov 24, 2019 Serie D - Group E
Grassina vs Foligno
3:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Foligno Compare

Top Goalscorer Colarieti L.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.8
Avg xA / game 0.52

Grassina Compare

Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.42

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Foligno 86 / 100
Grassina 11 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Foligno Grassina

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Foligno Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: Grassina conceded in 93% of 30 recent games.

Foligno found the back of the net in 69% of recent matches (36 games).

These sides typically produce 1.75 goals when they meet.

Solid form: Foligno remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Foligno VS Grassina
0.75 Goals Scored 0.5
1 Goals Conceded 1.33
63% Over 1.5 50%
13% Over 2.5 17%
13% Over 3.5 17%

Recent Form & Match History

Foligno

(Home)
20 Sept
Foligno
1 : 0
Notaresco Calcio
16 Sept
Recanatese
4 : 1
Foligno
12 Sept
Pietralunga
0 : 1
Foligno
06 Sept
Foligno
2 : 1
Lanciano FC
03 May
Foligno
1 : 0
Cannara
Page 1 of 8

Grassina

(Away)
20 Sept
Grassina
2 : 3
Scandicci
16 Sept
Prato
1 : 1
Grassina
13 Sept
Grassina
0 : 1
Flaminia
06 Sept
Follonica Gavorrano
2 : 0
Grassina
13 Aug
Montevarchi
1 : 0
Grassina
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Montevarchi 34 21 8 5 68:32 71
2 Trastevere Calcio 34 17 9 8 56:38 60
3 Sporting Trestina 34 15 11 8 48:33 56
4 San Donato Tavarnelle 34 14 12 8 48:40 54
5 Siena 34 15 8 11 48:40 53
6 Follonica Gavorrano 34 14 9 11 48:37 51
7 Pianese 34 13 12 9 41:34 51
8 Lornano Badesse 34 13 9 12 51:44 48
9 Tiferno Lerchi 34 13 8 13 44:48 47
10 Cannara 34 12 11 11 41:48 47
11 Sangiovannese 34 12 9 13 42:43 45
12 Montespaccato 34 11 8 15 40:47 41
13 Ostiamare 34 8 15 11 50:54 39
14 Flaminia 34 9 12 13 44:57 39
15 Foligno 34 9 9 16 35:48 36
16 Scandicci 34 10 7 17 42:49 35
17 Grassina 34 6 12 16 32:52 30
18 UC Sinalunghese 34 4 11 19 24:58 23
Promotion - Serie D - Group E 2020/2021 (Play Offs)