Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Forca Jovem Aquidaba vs Guarany SE

Brazil Brazil

Sergipano 2 2024
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Forca Jovem Aquidaba play Guarany SE in the Sergipano 2 2024. It looks like a close match. Recently, Forca Jovem Aquidaba averaged 1.5 goals scored and 1.29 conceded. Guarany SE averaged 1.5 goals scored and 1.34 conceded. In past meetings, Forca Jovem Aquidaba won 0, Guarany SE won 2, and they drew 0. Their last match on Sep 25, 2024 ended 1:2. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.04 for Forca Jovem Aquidaba and 1.17 for Guarany SE. This points to a Guarany SE double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

34%
Forca Jovem Aquidaba
15%
Draws
51%
Guarany SE
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Guarany SE

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

77% / High Confidence
  • Forca Jovem Aquidaba picked up more points recently compared to Guarany SE.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.04 vs 1.17 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 60%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 73%
Over 2.5 Goals 60%
Over 3.5 Goals 36%
Over 4.5 Goals 18%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 52%
Forca Jovem Aquidaba Clean Sheet 20%
Guarany SE Clean Sheet 14%
First Half Goal 66%
Second Half Goal 69%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Forca Jovem Aquidaba Guarany SE
Matches Played 14 32
Wins 6 16
Draws 0 6
Losses 8 10
Goals Scored 1.5 1.5
Goals Conceded 1.29 1.34
Expected Goals (xG) 0.83 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.33 1.25

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 25, 2024 Sergipano 2
Forca Jovem Aquidaba vs Guarany SE
1:2
Sep 9, 2024 Sergipano 2
Guarany SE vs Forca Jovem Aquidaba
1:0

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Forca Jovem Aquidaba 35 / 100
Guarany SE 49 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Forca Jovem Aquidaba Guarany SE

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Guarany SE or Draw (X2)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Draw (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +30.9%
3.85
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +11%
1.85
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Forca Jovem Aquidaba attacking → ← attacking Guarany SE

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Forca Jovem Aquidaba scored in 64% of their last 14 games.

Guarany SE let in goals in 78% of their last 32 matches.

Games between these two average 2.00 goals.

Forca Jovem Aquidaba went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Guarany SE lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

18 Points in last 5 54
0.83 Goals expected (xG) 1.00
1.33 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.25

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Flamengo SE870113:121
2Atletico Central860217:718
3Aracaju FC850314:1015
4CS Maruinense81165:134
5Socorro80171:191
PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Desportiva Aracaju871016:422
2Barra SE861119:419
3Santa Cruz SE830512:159
4Cotinguiba81167:144
5Socorrense81161:184
PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1America de Pedrinhas860220:918
2Independente SE834112:1113
3Riachao833211:712
4Amadense831415:1810
5AD Boquinhense80265:182
PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Frei Paulistano861121:319
2Boca Junior851214:816
3Estanciano EC831411:1210
4Sete de Junho82156:157
5Botafogo ASF81253:175
PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Guarany SE861123:619
2Caninde851214:1016
3Forca Jovem Aquidaba840416:1012
4Propria823311:149
5Coritiba SE80176:301