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Forfar Athletic vs Elgin City - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Scotland Scotland

League Two Station Park, Forfar
Sat, Oct 10, 2026
0 - 1
02:00 PM
Our Tip

Match Events

5' Event
Hester K.
Assist: Murray J.
23'
Hickey R.
38'
Scullion L.

AI Match Summary

Forfar Athletic host Elgin City in the League Two. Neither defense has been convincing lately, which should mean goals. Recent numbers: Forfar Athletic at 1.16 goals for, 1.81 against; Elgin City at 2.11 for, 1.56 against. Head-to-head, Forfar Athletic have won 2 to Elgin City's 2, with 1 draws. They last met on Aug 8, 2026, ending 1:1. The numbers (1.19 xG vs 2.06) point toward Elgin City. Over 2.5 looks the sharpest market angle here.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

43%
Forfar Athletic
15%
Draws
42%
Elgin City
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Forfar Athletic

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

42% / Low Confidence
  • Elgin City's 2.11 goals per match outpaces what Forfar Athletic have produced (1.16).
  • 42% — that's where the model lands on Elgin City taking it.
  • Regular League Two form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 25.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71.4%
Forfar Athletic Clean Sheet 10%
Elgin City Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Forfar Athletic Elgin City
Matches Played 31 27
Wins 11 11
Draws 7 5
Losses 13 11
Goals Scored 1.16 2.11
Goals Conceded 1.81 1.56
Expected Goals (xG) 1.19 2.06
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 8, 2026 League Two
Elgin City vs Forfar Athletic
1:1
Apr 4, 2026 League Two
Forfar Athletic vs Elgin City
2:1
Mar 24, 2026 League Two
Elgin City vs Forfar Athletic
2:0
Dec 27, 2025 League Two
Forfar Athletic vs Elgin City
4:2
Oct 4, 2025 League Two
Elgin City vs Forfar Athletic
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Forfar Athletic Compare

Avg xG / game 0.92
Avg xA / game 0.59

Elgin City Compare

Top Goalscorer Hester K.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.87
Avg xA / game 1.14

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Forfar Athletic 22 / 100
Elgin City 47 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Forfar Athletic Elgin City

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Elgin City Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

These sides typically produce 3.20 goals when they meet.

Forfar Athletic's goal record stands at 71% scoring rate across 31 recent games.

Elgin City's defensive record shows goals conceded in 70% of 27 matches.

Solid form: Forfar Athletic remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Forfar Athletic VS Elgin City
1 Goals Scored 2.38
1.75 Goals Conceded 1.38
88% Over 1.5 75%
50% Over 2.5 63%
13% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Forfar Athletic

(Home)
03 Oct
Dumbarton
2 : 1
Forfar Athletic
29 Sept
Forfar Athletic
2 : 0
Formartine Utd
26 Sept
Forfar Athletic
2 : 1
Dundee Utd B
22 Sept
Forfar Athletic
0 : 2
Peterhead
19 Sept
Forfar Athletic
1 : 0
Annan
Page 1 of 7

Elgin City

(Away)
03 Oct
Elgin City
6 : 2
Clyde
26 Sept
Peterhead
0 : 1
Elgin City
22 Sept
Elgin City
3 : 0
Dundee FC B
19 Sept
Elgin City
1 : 5
Stranraer
12 Sept
Annan
2 : 0
Elgin City
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Stranraer 9 5 2 2 17:8 17
2 Clyde 9 5 2 2 21:16 17
3 Elgin City 9 4 2 3 25:16 14
4 Spartans 9 3 3 3 19:17 12
5 Kelty Hearts 9 4 0 5 13:18 12
6 Dumbarton 9 4 0 5 10:15 12
7 Forfar Athletic 9 3 2 4 9:15 11
8 Edinburgh City 9 4 3 2 19:15 10
9 Annan 9 3 0 6 9:11 9
10 Stirling 9 2 2 5 11:22 8
Promotion - League One 2027/2028 (Main)
Promotion - League One (Relegation - Play Offs)
Relegation - League Two (Relegation - Play Offs)