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Forfar Athletic vs Hamilton

Scotland Scotland

League One 2025/2026 Station Park, Forfar
Our Tip

Match Events

44' Event
MacDonald K.
Assist: Shaw O.
71' Event
Shaw O.
Assist: McKinstry S.
75'
Sub
Alston B. In: Richardson J.
Out: Alston B.

AI Match Summary

Hamilton in this League One 2025/2026 tie, finishing 1-3. One-off knockout football delivers a decisive result.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%
Forfar Athletic
20%
Draws
40%
Hamilton
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

40% / Low Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Hamilton lately — more wins on the board than Forfar Athletic.
  • 40% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • Hamilton arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
  • Historical meetings favor Hamilton, who have won 3 of the last 5 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • History favors Hamilton here — 5 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 37.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 69%
Forfar Athletic Clean Sheet 10%
Hamilton Clean Sheet 17%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Forfar Athletic Hamilton
Matches Played 31 28
Wins 10 15
Draws 9 5
Losses 12 8
Goals Scored 1.06 1.89
Goals Conceded 1.58 1.07
Expected Goals (xG) 0.88 2.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 9, 2026 League One
Hamilton vs Forfar Athletic
2:1
May 5, 2026 League One
Forfar Athletic vs Hamilton
1:3
Jul 16, 2022 League Cup
Forfar Athletic vs Hamilton
0:3
May 15, 2004 League One
Forfar Athletic vs Hamilton
0:4
Jan 20, 2004 League One
Hamilton vs Forfar Athletic
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Forfar Athletic Compare

Top Goalscorer Shepherd S.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.44

Hamilton Compare

Top Goalscorer Shaw O.
2 Goals
Assists Leader MacDonald K.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.82
Avg xA / game 1.11

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Forfar Athletic 34 / 100
Hamilton 21 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Forfar Athletic Hamilton

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Hamilton Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

H2H data points to 3.40 goals as a typical output.

Attacking prowess: Forfar Athletic scored in 65% of their last 31 outings.

Hamilton's defensive record shows goals conceded in 61% of 28 matches.

Recent resilience: Forfar Athletic stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Forfar Athletic VS Hamilton
1.13 Goals Scored 2
2 Goals Conceded 0.63
75% Over 1.5 50%
63% Over 2.5 50%
25% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Forfar Athletic

(Home)
28 Aug
Edinburgh City
1 : 1
Forfar Athletic
25 Aug
Forfar Athletic
1 : 0
Formartine Utd
22 Aug
Clyde
3 : 0
Forfar Athletic
15 Aug
Forfar Athletic
3 : 0
Stirling
11 Aug
Forfar Athletic
0 : 3
Aberdeen B
Page 1 of 7

Hamilton

(Away)
25 Aug
Hamilton
0 : 1
Edinburgh City
22 Aug
East Fife
0 : 0
Hamilton
15 Aug
Hamilton
4 : 0
Airdrieonians
12 Aug
Hamilton
1 : 3
Celtic B
08 Aug
Hamilton
1 : 0
Alloa
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Semi-finals
Hamilton 5
Forfar Athletic 2
Spartans 1
Clyde 3
Final
Hamilton 5
Clyde 4