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Forfar Athletic vs Kelty Hearts

Scotland Scotland

League Two Station Park, Forfar
Our Tip

Match Events

4'
Flatman C.
15' Event
Mailer A.
Assist: Rennie M.
60'
Sub
MacLean R. In: Brown A.
Out: MacLean R.

AI Match Summary

The League Two game between Forfar Athletic and Kelty Hearts finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Forfar Athletic.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

43%
Forfar Athletic
15%
Draws
42%
Kelty Hearts
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Forfar Athletic

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

42% / Low Confidence
  • Forfar Athletic carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 39% draw probability.
  • Regular League Two form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 38%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 69.8%
Forfar Athletic Clean Sheet 11%
Kelty Hearts Clean Sheet 13%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Forfar Athletic Kelty Hearts
Matches Played 29 28
Wins 9 7
Draws 8 8
Losses 12 13
Goals Scored 1.1 0.86
Goals Conceded 1.66 1.46
Expected Goals (xG) 1.13 1.81
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 1, 2026 League Two
Forfar Athletic vs Kelty Hearts
1:0
Aug 23, 2022 Challenge Cup
Forfar Athletic vs Kelty Hearts
1:2
Apr 23, 2022 League Two
Kelty Hearts vs Forfar Athletic
1:1
Feb 19, 2022 League Two
Forfar Athletic vs Kelty Hearts
1:0
Nov 13, 2021 League Two
Kelty Hearts vs Forfar Athletic
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Forfar Athletic Compare

Top Goalscorer Mailer A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.87
Avg xA / game 0.56

Kelty Hearts Compare

Avg xG / game 1.65
Avg xA / game 1.01

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Forfar Athletic 30 / 100
Kelty Hearts 30 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Forfar Athletic Kelty Hearts

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick KEL Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: Kelty Hearts conceded in 86% of 28 recent games.

Forfar Athletic scored in 66% of their last 29 games.

These sides typically produce 1.60 goals when they meet.

Kelty Hearts's recent record shows 3 losses from the last 5 matches.

Scoring Trends

Forfar Athletic VS Kelty Hearts
0.75 Goals Scored 0.63
3 Goals Conceded 1.5
88% Over 1.5 63%
75% Over 2.5 50%
63% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Forfar Athletic

(Home)
01 Aug
Forfar Athletic
1 : 0
Kelty Hearts
25 Jul
Forfar Athletic
3 : 1
Brechin
21 Jul
Livingston
8 : 0
Forfar Athletic
14 Jul
Forfar Athletic
0 : 4
Partick
11 Jul
Stenhousemuir
2 : 0
Forfar Athletic
Page 1 of 6

Kelty Hearts

(Away)
01 Aug
Forfar Athletic
1 : 0
Kelty Hearts
25 Jul
Aberdeen
3 : 0
Kelty Hearts
21 Jul
Kelty Hearts
3 : 2
Brora Rangers
14 Jul
Kelty Hearts
0 : 2
Queen's Park
11 Jul
Queen of the South
1 : 2
Kelty Hearts
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Elgin City 1 1 0 0 5:0 3
2 Spartans 1 1 0 0 4:2 3
3 Clyde 1 1 0 0 3:1 3
4 Stirling 1 1 0 0 2:0 3
5 Forfar Athletic 1 1 0 0 1:0 3
6 Kelty Hearts 1 0 0 1 0:1 0
7 Annan 1 0 0 1 2:4 0
8 Stranraer 1 0 0 1 1:3 0
9 Dumbarton 1 0 0 1 0:2 0
10 Edinburgh City 1 0 0 1 0:5 -5
Promotion - League One 2027/2028 (Main)
Promotion - League One (Relegation - Play Offs)
Relegation - League Two (Relegation - Play Offs)