Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Fornos de Algodres vs Charneca Caparica

Portugal Portugal

Taça de Portugal
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Fornos de Algodres play Charneca Caparica in the Taça de Portugal. Charneca Caparica are favorites here. Recently, Fornos de Algodres averaged 0.6 goals scored and 3.03 conceded. Charneca Caparica averaged 0.67 goals scored and 1.67 conceded. In past meetings, Fornos de Algodres won 1, Charneca Caparica won 0, and they drew 0. Their last match on Sep 21, 2025 ended 3:1. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.06 for Fornos de Algodres and 1.75 for Charneca Caparica. This points to a Charneca Caparica double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

27%
Fornos de Algodres
15%
Draws
58%
Charneca Caparica
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Charneca Caparica

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

84% / High Confidence
  • Fornos de Algodres picked up more points recently compared to Charneca Caparica.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.06 vs 1.75 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 68%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 88%
Over 2.5 Goals 68%
Over 3.5 Goals 41%
Over 4.5 Goals 20%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 53%
Fornos de Algodres Clean Sheet 12%
Charneca Caparica Clean Sheet 14%
First Half Goal 79%
Second Half Goal 84%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Fornos de Algodres Charneca Caparica
Matches Played 30 3
Wins 1 1
Draws 4 0
Losses 25 2
Goals Scored 0.6 0.67
Goals Conceded 3.03 1.67
Expected Goals (xG) 0.63 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 2.50 1.50

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 21, 2025 Taça de Portugal
Fornos de Algodres vs Charneca Caparica
3:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Fornos de Algodres Compare

Top Goalscorer Bruno Costa
1 Goals
Assists Leader Moises P.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.48
Avg xA / game 0.32

Charneca Caparica Compare

Top Goalscorer Naia G.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Fornos de Algodres 27 / 100
Charneca Caparica 55 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Fornos de Algodres Charneca Caparica

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Charneca Caparica Win (2)
Secondary Pick Charneca Caparica & Over 2.5
First Half Result Draw (HT)
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +42%
5.26
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +9.5%
1.61
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Fornos de Algodres attacking → ← attacking Charneca Caparica

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Fornos de Algodres scored in 53% of their last 30 games.

Charneca Caparica let in goals in 67% of their last 3 matches.

Games between these two average 4.00 goals.

Fornos de Algodres went unbeaten in 1 of their last 5 games.

Charneca Caparica lost 2 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

7 Points in last 5 3
0.63 Goals expected (xG) 1.00
2.50 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.50