Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Fortaleza vs Iguatu

Brazil Brazil

Cearense Castelão, Fortaleza
Our Tip

Match Events

7' Event
Barbosa F.
Assist: Biel Potiguar
23'
Biel Potiguar
23'
Mailton

AI Match Summary

Neither side could be separated in this Cearense matchup, with the score ending 1-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

28%
Fortaleza
35%
Draws
37%
Iguatu
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Iguatu

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

37% / Low Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Fortaleza lately — more wins on the board than Iguatu.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 39%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • History favors Fortaleza here — 4 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 8.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 4%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71.4%
Fortaleza Clean Sheet 18%
Iguatu Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Fortaleza Iguatu
Matches Played 37 30
Wins 19 12
Draws 9 13
Losses 9 5
Goals Scored 1.3 1.27
Goals Conceded 0.81 0.97
Expected Goals (xG) 1.17 1.33
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 31, 2026 Cearense
Fortaleza vs Iguatu
1:1
Jan 31, 2024 Cearense
Fortaleza vs Iguatu
3:1
Jan 14, 2023 Cearense
Fortaleza vs Iguatu
2:0
Mar 2, 2018 Cearense
Fortaleza vs Iguatu
2:0
Jan 25, 2018 Cearense
Fortaleza vs Iguatu
3:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Fortaleza Compare

Avg xG / game 0.9
Avg xA / game 0.58

Iguatu Compare

Top Goalscorer Barbosa F.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.21
Avg xA / game 0.74

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Fortaleza 32 / 100
Iguatu 29 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Fortaleza Iguatu

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Iguatu Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Fortaleza found the back of the net in 76% of recent matches (37 games).

Iguatu has conceded goals in 73% of their last 30 outings.

Games between these two average 2.80 goals.

Solid form: Fortaleza remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Fortaleza VS Iguatu
1 Goals Scored 1.67
1 Goals Conceded 1.33
63% Over 1.5 100%
38% Over 2.5 67%
0% Over 3.5 17%

Recent Form & Match History

Fortaleza

(Home)
19 Aug
Fortaleza
1 : 1
Sao Bernardo
15 Aug
EC Juventude
0 : 0
Fortaleza
09 Aug
Cuiaba
1 : 1
Fortaleza
06 Aug
Fortaleza
3 : 2
Palmeiras
02 Aug
Palmeiras
3 : 0
Fortaleza
Page 1 of 8

Iguatu

(Away)
25 Jul
Iguatu
1 : 2
Nacional-AM (Manaus)
18 Jul
Nacional-AM (Manaus)
1 : 1
Iguatu
12 Jul
Iguatu
2 : 1
Maguary
04 Jul
Maguary
2 : 3
Iguatu
27 Jun
Iguatu
1 : 1
Tuna Luso
Page 1 of 6

League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Fortaleza 3 1 2 0 2:1 5
2 Ferroviario 3 1 1 1 3:5 4
3 Horizonte 3 0 1 2 1:6 1
Promotion - Cearense (Play Offs)
Promotion - Cearense (5th-6th places)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Ceara 3 2 1 0 9:1 7
2 Floresta EC 3 1 1 1 1:1 4
3 Iguatu 3 0 2 1 2:4 2
Promotion - Cearense (Play Offs)
Promotion - Cearense (5th-6th places)