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Fortaleza vs Imperatriz - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Brazil Brazil

Copa do Nordeste Castelão, Fortaleza
Our Tip

Match Events

30'
Guilherme Moura
31'
Artur Potiguar
44' Event
Lucas Emanoel

AI Match Summary

First leg ended 2-1. The second leg ended 2-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

34%
Fortaleza
35%
Draws
31%
Imperatriz
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

35% / Low Confidence
  • Fortaleza carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Fortaleza are the model's pick here, at 36%.
  • Fortaleza have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Fortaleza, who have won 2 of the last 4 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • History favors Fortaleza here — 3 wins from the last 4 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 68.2%
Fortaleza Clean Sheet 20%
Imperatriz Clean Sheet 14%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Fortaleza Imperatriz
Matches Played 34 32
Wins 18 9
Draws 9 12
Losses 7 11
Goals Scored 1.21 0.94
Goals Conceded 0.79 1.06
Expected Goals (xG) 1.04 1.06
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 28, 2026 Copa do Nordeste
Fortaleza vs Imperatriz
2:1
Feb 17, 2020 Copa do Nordeste
Imperatriz vs Fortaleza
1:2
Apr 28, 2016 Copa Betano do Brasil
Fortaleza vs Imperatriz
2:0
Mar 17, 2016 Copa Betano do Brasil
Imperatriz vs Fortaleza
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Fortaleza Compare

Top Goalscorer Lucas Emanoel
1 Goals
Assists Leader Welliton
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.8
Avg xA / game 0.52

Imperatriz Compare

Top Goalscorer Artur Potiguar
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.59

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Fortaleza 36 / 100
Imperatriz 33 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Fortaleza Imperatriz

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Fortaleza scored in 82% of their last 34 games.

Fortaleza has registered 5 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Imperatriz's defensive record shows goals conceded in 66% of 32 matches.

Games between these two average 2.50 goals.

Scoring Trends

Fortaleza VS -
0.88 Goals Scored 0
1.13 Goals Conceded 0
50% Over 1.5 0%
38% Over 2.5 0%
13% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Fortaleza

(Home)
07 Oct
America MG
0 : 1
Fortaleza
03 Oct
Fortaleza
1 : 1
Nautico
27 Sept
Fortaleza
2 : 2
Athletic Club
20 Sept
Londrina
1 : 2
Fortaleza
13 Sept
Fortaleza
1 : 1
Ceara
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Imperatriz

(Away)
12 Jul
Ferroviario
3 : 0
Imperatriz
04 Jul
Imperatriz
1 : 1
Ferroviario
27 Jun
Maracana
0 : 1
Imperatriz
20 Jun
Imperatriz
1 : 1
Maracana
06 Jun
Imperatriz
4 : 0
Tuna Luso
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