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Fortaleza vs Imperatriz

Brazil Brazil

Copa do Nordeste Castelão, Fortaleza
Our Tip

Match Events

30'
Guilherme Moura
31'
Artur Potiguar
44' Event
Lucas Emanoel

AI Match Summary

This match ends 2-1, with Fortaleza advancing. Cup football at its most decisive.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

36%
Fortaleza
44%
Draws
20%
Imperatriz
Draw rate projection: 44% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

71% / Medium Confidence
  • Fortaleza carry the better recent record into this one.
  • 44% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • Fortaleza have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Fortaleza, who have won 2 of the last 4 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • History favors Fortaleza here — 3 wins from the last 4 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 8.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 4%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 69.4%
Fortaleza Clean Sheet 19%
Imperatriz Clean Sheet 16%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Fortaleza Imperatriz
Matches Played 31 30
Wins 17 8
Draws 5 11
Losses 9 11
Goals Scored 1 1.33
Goals Conceded 1.25 0.83
Expected Goals (xG) 1.00 1.33
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.25 0.83

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 28, 2026 Copa do Nordeste
Fortaleza vs Imperatriz
2:1
Feb 17, 2020 Copa do Nordeste
Imperatriz vs Fortaleza
1:2
Apr 28, 2016 Copa Betano do Brasil
Fortaleza vs Imperatriz
2:0
Mar 17, 2016 Copa Betano do Brasil
Imperatriz vs Fortaleza
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Fortaleza Compare

Top Goalscorer Lucas Emanoel
1 Goals
Assists Leader Welliton
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.77
Avg xA / game 0.5

Imperatriz Compare

Top Goalscorer Artur Potiguar
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.21
Avg xA / game 0.74

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Fortaleza 36 / 100
Imperatriz 21 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Fortaleza Imperatriz

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick IMP Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Fortaleza scored in 77% of their last 31 games.

Imperatriz has conceded goals in 67% of their last 30 outings.

These sides typically produce 2.50 goals when they meet.

Fortaleza went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Fortaleza VS Imperatriz
1 Goals Scored 1.33
1.25 Goals Conceded 0.83
75% Over 1.5 67%
50% Over 2.5 33%
0% Over 3.5 17%

Recent Form & Match History

Fortaleza

(Home)
29 Jul
Fortaleza
1 : 0
Botafogo SP
22 Jul
Vila Nova FC
2 : 1
Fortaleza
18 Jul
Fortaleza
1 : 0
Novorizontino
12 Jul
Atletico GO
1 : 0
Fortaleza
03 Jul
Fortaleza
2 : 0
Ponte Preta
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Imperatriz

(Away)
12 Jul
Ferroviario
3 : 0
Imperatriz
04 Jul
Imperatriz
1 : 1
Ferroviario
27 Jun
Maracana
0 : 1
Imperatriz
20 Jun
Imperatriz
1 : 1
Maracana
06 Jun
Imperatriz
4 : 0
Tuna Luso
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