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Fortaleza vs Novorizontino - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Brazil Brazil

Serie B Castelão, Fortaleza
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Match Events

3' Event
Vitinho
40'
Joao Ricardo
45'
Neris

AI Match Summary

The Serie B game between Fortaleza and Novorizontino finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Fortaleza.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

34%
Fortaleza
35%
Draws
31%
Novorizontino
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

35% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Novorizontino come out ahead of Fortaleza on wins alone.
  • 40% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • Regular Serie B form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 38%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 70.2%
Fortaleza Clean Sheet 16%
Novorizontino Clean Sheet 14%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Fortaleza Novorizontino
Matches Played 28 29
Wins 13 15
Draws 8 8
Losses 7 6
Goals Scored 1.18 1.76
Goals Conceded 0.93 0.9
Expected Goals (xG) 1.06 1.44
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 18, 2026 Serie B
Fortaleza vs Novorizontino
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Fortaleza Compare

Top Goalscorer Vitinho
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.82
Avg xA / game 0.53

Novorizontino Compare

Avg xG / game 1.31
Avg xA / game 0.8

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Fortaleza 31 / 100
Novorizontino 29 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Fortaleza Novorizontino

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Fortaleza scored in 82% of their last 28 games.

Solid form: Fortaleza remains unbeaten in 5 of 5 recent matches.

Defensive concern: Novorizontino conceded in 66% of 29 recent games.

These sides typically produce 1.00 goals when they meet.

Scoring Trends

Fortaleza VS Novorizontino
1.25 Goals Scored 2.13
0.75 Goals Conceded 0.88
63% Over 1.5 88%
25% Over 2.5 75%
13% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Fortaleza

(Home)
07 Oct
America MG
0 : 1
Fortaleza
03 Oct
Fortaleza
1 : 1
Nautico
27 Sept
Fortaleza
2 : 2
Athletic Club
20 Sept
Londrina
1 : 2
Fortaleza
13 Sept
Fortaleza
1 : 1
Ceara
Page 1 of 6

Novorizontino

(Away)
08 Oct
Nautico
0 : 2
Novorizontino
02 Oct
Novorizontino
3 : 0
Goias
25 Sept
Novorizontino
0 : 0
Sao Bernardo
18 Sept
Ceara
2 : 1
Novorizontino
13 Sept
Novorizontino
1 : 1
Cuiaba
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 EC Juventude 32 17 8 7 37:19 59
2 Vila Nova FC 32 17 7 8 44:31 58
3 Novorizontino 32 16 9 7 54:27 57
4 Fortaleza 32 15 11 6 37:27 56
5 Criciuma 32 15 8 9 33:28 53
6 Atletico GO 32 14 10 8 40:30 52
7 CRB 32 15 6 11 49:45 51
8 Sport Recife 32 13 11 8 44:34 50
9 Operario-PR 32 13 9 10 44:43 48
10 Cuiaba 32 11 14 7 32:25 47
11 Goias 32 13 6 13 32:40 45
12 Sao Bernardo 32 12 9 11 44:34 45
13 Nautico 32 11 9 12 39:40 42
14 Ceara 32 11 9 12 35:39 42
15 Athletic Club 32 10 12 10 38:37 42
16 Botafogo SP 32 10 8 14 36:38 38
17 Avai 32 9 6 17 32:43 33
18 Londrina 32 7 7 18 40:47 28
19 America MG 32 4 5 23 21:53 17
20 Ponte Preta 32 3 4 25 17:68 13
Promotion - Serie A Betano 2027 (Main)
Promotion - Serie B (Promotion - Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie C 2027 (First stage)