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Fortaleza vs Vitoria

Brazil Brazil

Copa do Nordeste Castelão, Fortaleza
Our Tip

Match Events

25'
Martinez E.
26'
Renato Kayzer
26'
Britez E.

AI Match Summary

First leg ended 2-1. This leg finished 1-2.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

51%
Fortaleza
30%
Draws
19%
Vitoria
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Fortaleza

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

51% / Medium Confidence
  • Attack-wise there's a gap: Vitoria at 1.37 per game, Fortaleza at 1.07.
  • Win probability leans Fortaleza's way, sitting at 90%.
  • Both sides arrive with similar form. In a knockout tie, that makes this genuinely unpredictable.
  • Historical meetings favor Vitoria, who have won 2 of the last 5 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • Vitoria have won 4 of the last 5 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 69.8%
Fortaleza Clean Sheet 20%
Vitoria Clean Sheet 14%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Fortaleza Vitoria
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 12 12
Draws 8 5
Losses 9 13
Goals Scored 1.07 1.37
Goals Conceded 0.93 1.47
Expected Goals (xG) 1.06 0.69
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jun 6, 2026 Copa do Nordeste
Vitoria vs Fortaleza
2:1
Jun 3, 2026 Copa do Nordeste
Fortaleza vs Vitoria
1:2
Sep 13, 2025 Serie A Betano
Fortaleza vs Vitoria
2:0
Apr 17, 2025 Serie A Betano
Vitoria vs Fortaleza
2:1
Feb 20, 2025 Copa do Nordeste
Fortaleza vs Vitoria
1:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Fortaleza Compare

Top Goalscorer Vitinho
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.82
Avg xA / game 0.53

Vitoria Compare

Top Goalscorer Tarzia D.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.63
Avg xA / game 0.38

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Fortaleza 85 / 100
Vitoria 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Fortaleza Vitoria

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Fortaleza Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Fortaleza has registered 5 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Fortaleza found the back of the net in 76% of recent matches (29 games).

Vitoria has conceded goals in 70% of their last 30 outings.

These sides typically produce 2.80 goals when they meet.

Scoring Trends

Fortaleza VS Vitoria
1 Goals Scored 0.88
0.5 Goals Conceded 1.13
63% Over 1.5 63%
0% Over 2.5 25%
0% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Fortaleza

(Home)
20 Sept
Londrina
1 : 2
Fortaleza
13 Sept
Fortaleza
1 : 1
Ceara
09 Sept
Fortaleza
1 : 0
Avai
05 Sept
Goias
0 : 1
Fortaleza
31 Aug
Fortaleza
1 : 1
Operario-PR
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Vitoria

(Away)
20 Sept
Vitoria
1 : 3
Cruzeiro
13 Sept
Mirassol
2 : 2
Vitoria
07 Sept
Vitoria
1 : 0
Gremio
03 Sept
Vitoria
0 : 2
Vasco
29 Aug
Atletico-MG
2 : 1
Vitoria
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Quarter-finals
Vitoria 1
Ceara 0
ABC 4
Juazeirense 0
Confianca 1
Fortaleza 2
Sport Recife 1
ASA 0
Semi-finals
Vitoria 10
ABC 5
Fortaleza 3
Sport Recife 2
Final
Vitoria 4
Fortaleza 2