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Stadium Background

Forte vs Estrela do Norte

Brazil Brazil

Capixaba 2 2025
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Forte in this Capixaba 2 2025 tie, finishing 2-1. One-off knockout football delivers a decisive result.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

12%
Forte
30%
Draws
58%
Estrela do Norte
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Estrela do Norte

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

58% / Medium Confidence
  • Forte haven't matched Estrela do Norte's recent run of results.
  • Model gives Estrela do Norte a 58% chance of winning this.
  • Estrela do Norte arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
  • Historical meetings favor Forte, who have won 1 of the last 3 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • Forte have won 2 of the last 3 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 62.2%
Forte Clean Sheet 16%
Estrela do Norte Clean Sheet 20%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Forte Estrela do Norte
Matches Played 21 29
Wins 7 15
Draws 8 5
Losses 6 9
Goals Scored 1.1 1.55
Goals Conceded 0.71 0.69
Expected Goals (xG) 0.32 1.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 4, 2025 Capixaba 2
Estrela do Norte vs Forte
0:1
Sep 28, 2025 Capixaba 2
Forte vs Estrela do Norte
2:1
Sep 6, 2025 Capixaba 2
Estrela do Norte vs Forte
1:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Forte 10 / 100
Estrela do Norte 85 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Forte Estrela do Norte

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Estrela do Norte Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Games between these two average 1.67 goals.

Forte went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Forte scored in 52% of their last 21 games.

Estrela do Norte has conceded goals in 55% of their last 29 outings.

Scoring Trends

Forte VS Estrela do Norte
0.5 Goals Scored 2.63
0.38 Goals Conceded 0.13
38% Over 1.5 75%
0% Over 2.5 38%
0% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Forte

(Home)
01 Mar
Vitoria ES
4 : 1
Forte
23 Feb
Forte
1 : 1
Vitoria ES
12 Feb
Forte
0 : 1
Desportiva Ferroviaria
07 Feb
Rio Branco ES
0 : 0
Forte
05 Feb
Forte
0 : 0
Vitoria ES
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Estrela do Norte

(Away)
12 Sept
Estrela do Norte
3 : 0
Audax Sao Mateus
06 Sept
Audax Sao Mateus
1 : 2
Estrela do Norte
29 Aug
Sport-ES
0 : 1
Estrela do Norte
22 Aug
Estrela do Norte
4 : 0
Tupy
19 Aug
Pinheiros
0 : 5
Estrela do Norte
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Tournament Bracket & Draw

Semi-finals
Serra 5
Linhares Futebol Clube 2
Estrela do Norte 1
Forte 3
Final
Serra 1
Forte 0