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Fossano vs Castanese

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group A 2022/2023
Our Tip

Match Events

11' Event
Costa A.
(Penalty)
35' Event
Costa A.
40' Event
Alfiero V.
(Penalty)

AI Match Summary

The Serie D - Group A 2022/2023 game between Fossano and Castanese finished 4-3, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Fossano.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

0%
Fossano
20%
Draws
80%
Castanese
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Castanese

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

80% / Very High Confidence
  • Fossano carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Win probability leans Castanese's way, sitting at 90%.
  • Regular Serie D - Group A 2022/2023 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 72.2%
Fossano Clean Sheet 19%
Castanese Clean Sheet 14%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Fossano Castanese
Matches Played 34 30
Wins 7 5
Draws 6 11
Losses 21 14
Goals Scored 0.94 1
Goals Conceded 1.76 1.47
Expected Goals (xG) 1.04 1.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 19, 2023 Serie D - Group A
Fossano vs Castanese
4:3
Nov 13, 2022 Serie D - Group A
Castanese vs Fossano
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Fossano Compare

Top Goalscorer Alfiero V.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Malltezi O.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.8
Avg xA / game 0.52

Castanese Compare

Top Goalscorer Costa A.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Becchi A.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.14
Avg xA / game 0.69

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Fossano 10 / 100
Castanese 84 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Fossano Castanese

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Castanese Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Castanese let in goals in 80% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 3.50 goals.

Attacking prowess: Fossano scored in 62% of their last 34 outings.

Castanese's recent record shows 3 losses from the last 5 matches.

Scoring Trends

Fossano VS -
0.88 Goals Scored 0
1.5 Goals Conceded 0
50% Over 1.5 0%
50% Over 2.5 0%
25% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Fossano

(Home)
04 May
Chisola
5 : 0
Fossano
27 Apr
Fossano
0 : 1
AC Chieri
17 Apr
NovaRomentin
3 : 1
Fossano
13 Apr
Fossano
1 : 2
Derthona FbC
06 Apr
Lavagnese
1 : 0
Fossano
Page 1 of 7

Castanese

(Away)
14 May
Derthona FbC
1 : 0
Castanese
07 May
Ligorna
2 : 1
Castanese
30 Apr
Castanese
1 : 1
Stresa Vergante
23 Apr
Vado
2 : 0
Castanese
16 Apr
Castanese
3 : 3
AC Chieri
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Sestri Levante 38 30 4 4 77:29 94
2 Sanremese 38 21 11 6 59:33 74
3 Bra 38 21 11 6 59:31 74
4 Vado 38 19 12 7 61:40 69
5 Ligorna 38 17 15 6 50:36 66
6 Legnano 38 17 9 12 53:35 60
7 Asti Calcio 38 13 18 7 44:35 57
8 Gozzano 38 16 7 15 51:48 55
9 Borgosesia Calcio 38 14 10 14 54:54 52
10 PDHA 38 12 11 15 33:43 47
11 Castellanzese 38 11 13 14 51:55 46
12 AC Chieri 38 10 15 13 41:45 45
13 Fezzanese 38 11 12 15 47:58 45
14 Chisola 38 11 10 17 43:53 43
15 Pinerolo 38 8 18 12 38:44 42
16 Derthona FbC 38 9 15 14 55:62 42
17 Castanese 38 9 12 17 43:57 39
18 Stresa Vergante 38 7 13 18 37:47 34
19 Casale 38 5 9 24 28:79 24
20 Fossano 38 1 11 26 40:80 14
Promotion - Serie D - Group A 2022/2023 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie D - Group A 2022/2023 (Play Out)