Sport Picks

Tanzania

Ligi Kuu Bara Kwaraa Stadium

Mtibwa Sugar

Our Tip

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Heatmaps Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Fountain Gate play Mtibwa Sugar in the Ligi Kuu Bara. It looks like a close match. Recently, Fountain Gate averaged 0.83 goals scored and 1.57 conceded. Mtibwa Sugar averaged 0.83 goals scored and 1.6 conceded. In past meetings, Fountain Gate won 3, Mtibwa Sugar won 2, and they drew 0. Their last match on Apr 18, 2026 ended 2:1. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.88 for Fountain Gate and 1.25 for Mtibwa Sugar. This points to a Fountain Gate double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

47%

Fountain Gate

18%

Draws

35%

Mtibwa Sugar

Draw rate projection: 18% Favored: Fountain Gate

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

74% / Medium Confidence

Fountain Gate picked up more points recently compared to Mtibwa Sugar.
Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.88 vs 1.25 xG).
Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%

Over 1.5 Goals 71%

Over 2.5 Goals 45%

Over 3.5 Goals 27%

Over 4.5 Goals 14%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 42%

Fountain Gate Clean Sheet 19%

Mtibwa Sugar Clean Sheet 10%

First Half Goal 64%

Second Half Goal 67%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Fountain Gate	Mtibwa Sugar
Matches Played	30	30
Wins	9	6
Draws	6	9
Losses	15	15
Goals Scored	0.83	0.83
Goals Conceded	1.57	1.6
Expected Goals (xG)	1.25	0.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	1.63	2.50

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 18, 2026 Ligi Kuu Bara

Fountain Gate vs Mtibwa Sugar

Possession: 51% - 51% Cards: 3 - 2

2:1

Sep 28, 2025 Ligi Kuu Bara

Mtibwa Sugar vs Fountain Gate

Possession: 49% - 52% Cards: 2 - 3

2:0

Mar 2, 2024 Ligi Kuu Bara

Fountain Gate vs Mtibwa Sugar

Possession: 50% - 52% Cards: 2 - 4

0:2

Oct 5, 2023 Ligi Kuu Bara

Mtibwa Sugar vs Fountain Gate

Possession: 52% - 42% Cards: 4 - 2

0:1

Feb 27, 2023 Ligi Kuu Bara

Fountain Gate vs Mtibwa Sugar

Possession: 42% - 45% Cards: 2 - 4

2:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Fountain Gate Compare

Top Goalscorer David H.

1 Goals

Avg xG / game 0.96

Avg xA / game 0.63

Mtibwa Sugar Compare

Top Goalscorer Kiziwa N.

1 Goals

Avg xG / game 0.8

Avg xA / game 0.49

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Fountain Gate 46 / 100

Mtibwa Sugar 34 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Fountain Gate Mtibwa Sugar

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Fountain Gate or Draw (1X)

Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals

First Half Result Home Win (HT)

BTTS Outcome No (NG)

Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win

Value Edge +20.3%

2.56

Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals

Value Edge +15.2%

2.56

*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Fountain Gate attacking → ← attacking Mtibwa Sugar

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Fountain Gate scored in 50% of their last 30 games.

Mtibwa Sugar let in goals in 80% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 2.00 goals.

Fountain Gate went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Mtibwa Sugar lost 5 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

33 Points in last 5 27

1.25 Goals expected (xG) 0.88

1.63 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 2.50

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Young Africans	30	23	6	1	71:9	75
2	Simba	30	22	7	1	54:11	73
3	Azam	30	18	10	2	46:12	64
4	Singida Black Stars	30	15	5	10	47:35	50
5	TRA United	30	11	10	9	33:28	43
6	JKT Tanzania	30	10	12	8	30:33	42
7	Pamba	30	9	9	12	32:35	36
8	Coastal Union	30	9	9	12	31:37	36
9	Dodoma Jiji	30	8	11	11	25:36	35
10	Namungo	30	7	13	10	25:32	34
11	Mashujaa	30	7	12	11	15:27	33
12	Fountain Gate	30	9	6	15	25:44	33
13	Tanzania Prisons	30	9	5	16	23:41	32
14	Mbeya City	30	7	9	14	24:41	30
15	Mtibwa Sugar	30	6	9	15	25:48	27
16	Kinondoni MC	30	2	3	25	16:53	9