Sport Picks
Fountain Gate vs Mtibwa Sugar
Tanzania
Ligi Kuu Bara 2025/2026 Kwaraa Stadium, Babati 
Match Events
15'
15'
Mukombozi D.
43'
43'
Mpozi S.
46'
46'
Sub
Simchimba A. In: Kiziwa N.
Out: Simchimba A.
AI Match Summary
The Ligi Kuu Bara 2025/2026 game between Fountain Gate and Mtibwa Sugar finished 2-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Fountain Gate.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
85%
15%
0%
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Fountain Gate
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
85%
/ Very High Confidence
- Look at the last few games and Fountain Gate come out ahead of Mtibwa Sugar on wins alone.
- Fountain Gate are the model's pick here, at 50%.
- Regular Ligi Kuu Bara 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 90%
Over 1.5 Goals 80.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 28.400000000000002%
Fountain Gate Clean Sheet 68%
Mtibwa Sugar Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Fountain Gate | Mtibwa Sugar |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 31 | 30 |
| Wins | 8 | 6 |
| Draws | 6 | 9 |
| Losses | 17 | 15 |
| Goals Scored | 0.77 | 0.83 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.65 | 1.6 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.65 | 1.23 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Apr 18, 2026 Ligi Kuu Bara
Fountain Gate vs Mtibwa Sugar
2:1
Sep 28, 2025 Ligi Kuu Bara
Mtibwa Sugar vs Fountain Gate
2:0
Mar 2, 2024 Ligi Kuu Bara
Fountain Gate vs Mtibwa Sugar
0:2
Oct 5, 2023 Ligi Kuu Bara
Mtibwa Sugar vs Fountain Gate
0:1
Feb 27, 2023 Ligi Kuu Bara
Fountain Gate vs Mtibwa Sugar
2:0
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Fountain Gate Compare
Top Goalscorer David H.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.27
Avg xA / game 0.82
Mtibwa Sugar Compare
Top Goalscorer Kiziwa N.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.12
Avg xA / game 0.68
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Fountain Gate 59 / 100
Mtibwa Sugar 22 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Fountain Gate Mtibwa Sugar
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Fountain Gate Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Mtibwa Sugar's defensive record shows goals conceded in 80% of 30 matches.
Mtibwa Sugar lost 5 of their last 5 games.
H2H data points to 2.00 goals as a typical output.
Fountain Gate scored in 45% of their last 31 games.
Scoring Trends
Fountain Gate VS Mtibwa Sugar
1 Goals Scored 0.71
1.75 Goals Conceded 2.29
75% Over 1.5 86%
50% Over 2.5 86%
25% Over 3.5 29%
Recent Form & Match History
Fountain Gate
(Home) 13 Sept
Kagera Sugar
1 : 1 Fountain Gate
31 Aug
Fountain Gate
0 : 2 Young Africans
28 Aug
Fountain Gate
0 : 2 Mbeya City
25 Aug
Namungo
1 : 0 Fountain Gate
18 Aug
Fountain Gate
1 : 0 Mashujaa
Page 1 of 7
31 Aug
Fountain Gate
0 : 2 Young Africans
28 Aug
Fountain Gate
0 : 2 Mbeya City
18 Aug
Fountain Gate
1 : 0 Mashujaa
30 Jun
Fountain Gate
4 : 3 Singida Black Stars
24 Jun
Fountain Gate
0 : 1 Mashujaa
Page 1 of 3
Mtibwa Sugar
(Away) 30 Jun
Namungo
2 : 1 Mtibwa Sugar
27 Jun
Tanzania Prisons
2 : 1 Mtibwa Sugar
24 Jun
Mtibwa Sugar
0 : 3 Simba
18 Jun
Pamba
4 : 0 Mtibwa Sugar
13 Jun
Mbeya City
1 : 0 Mtibwa Sugar
Page 1 of 6
30 Jun
Namungo
2 : 1 Mtibwa Sugar
27 Jun
Tanzania Prisons
2 : 1 Mtibwa Sugar
18 Jun
Pamba
4 : 0 Mtibwa Sugar
13 Jun
Mbeya City
1 : 0 Mtibwa Sugar
20 May
TRA United
2 : 1 Mtibwa Sugar
Page 1 of 3
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Young Africans | 30 | 23 | 6 | 1 | 71:9 | 75 |
| 2 | Simba | 30 | 22 | 7 | 1 | 54:11 | 73 |
| 3 | Azam | 30 | 18 | 10 | 2 | 46:12 | 64 |
| 4 | Singida Black Stars | 30 | 15 | 5 | 10 | 47:35 | 50 |
| 5 | TRA United | 30 | 11 | 10 | 9 | 33:28 | 43 |
| 6 | JKT Tanzania | 30 | 10 | 12 | 8 | 30:33 | 42 |
| 7 | Pamba | 30 | 9 | 9 | 12 | 32:35 | 36 |
| 8 | Coastal Union | 30 | 9 | 9 | 12 | 31:37 | 36 |
| 9 | Dodoma Jiji | 30 | 8 | 11 | 11 | 25:36 | 35 |
| 10 | Namungo | 30 | 7 | 13 | 10 | 25:32 | 34 |
| 11 | Mashujaa | 30 | 7 | 12 | 11 | 15:27 | 33 |
| 12 | Fountain Gate | 30 | 9 | 6 | 15 | 25:44 | 33 |
| 13 | Tanzania Prisons | 30 | 9 | 5 | 16 | 23:41 | 32 |
| 14 | Mbeya City | 30 | 7 | 9 | 14 | 24:41 | 30 |
| 15 | Mtibwa Sugar | 30 | 6 | 9 | 15 | 25:48 | 27 |
| 16 | Kinondoni MC | 30 | 2 | 3 | 25 | 16:53 | 9 |
Promotion - CAF Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - CAF Confederation Cup (Qualification)
Relegation - Ligi Kuu Bara 2025/2026 (Relegation)
