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France vs Italy Prediction & H2H Stats

Europe Europe

UEFA Nations League 2024/2025 Parc des Princes, Paris
France Logo

France

1 - 3
FT
Italy Logo

Italy

Our Tip

Match Events

1' Event
Barcola B.
30' Event
Dimarco F.
Assist: Tonali S.
46'
Sub
Pellegrini Lo. In: Raspadori G.
Out: Pellegrini Lo.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

The UEFA Nations League 2024/2025 game between France and Italy finished 1-3, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Italy.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

33%
France
20%
Draws
47%
Italy
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Italy

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

47% / Medium Confidence
  • Italy haven't matched France's recent run of results.
  • Win probability leans Italy's way, sitting at 40%.
  • European nights carry their own weight — this UEFA Nations League 2024/2025 fixture won't be treated like a routine game.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 72.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 34.8%
France Clean Sheet 25%
Italy Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric France Italy
Matches Played 34 30
Wins 23 17
Draws 5 5
Losses 6 8
Goals Scored 2.15 1.9
Goals Conceded 1.06 1.27
Expected Goals (xG) 1.68 0.89
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 2, 2026 UEFA Nations League
France vs Italy
1:1
Nov 17, 2024 UEFA Nations League
Italy vs France
1:3
Sep 6, 2024 UEFA Nations League
France vs Italy
1:3
Jun 1, 2018 Friendly International
France vs Italy
3:1
Sep 1, 2016 Friendly International
Italy vs France
1:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

France Compare

Top Goalscorer Barcola B.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.29
Avg xA / game 0.84

Italy Compare

Top Goalscorer Dimarco F.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Frattesi D.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.81
Avg xA / game 0.49

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

France 29 / 100
Italy 50 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
France Italy

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Italy Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

France's goal record stands at 91% scoring rate across 34 recent games.

Historical meetings average 3.60 goals per match.

Defensive concern: Italy conceded in 67% of 30 recent games.

France went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

France VS Italy
2.5 Goals Scored 1.14
0.63 Goals Conceded 0.86
88% Over 1.5 57%
75% Over 2.5 29%
38% Over 3.5 14%

Recent Form & Match History

France

(Home)
02 Oct
France
1 : 1
Italy
28 Sept
Belgium
0 : 1
France
25 Sept
Turkey
0 : 1
France
18 Jul
France
4 : 6
England
14 Jul
France
0 : 2
Spain
Page 1 of 7

Italy

(Away)
02 Oct
France
1 : 1
Italy
28 Sept
Turkey
1 : 4
Italy
25 Sept
Italy
0 : 2
Belgium
07 Jun
Greece
0 : 1
Italy
03 Jun
Luxembourg
0 : 1
Italy
Page 1 of 6

League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Portugal 6 4 2 0 13:5 14
2 Croatia 6 2 2 2 8:8 8
3 Scotland 6 2 1 3 7:8 7
4 Poland 6 1 1 4 9:16 4
Promotion - UEFA Nations League 2024/2025 (League A - Play Offs)
Relegation - UEFA Nations League 2024/2025 (Relegation - League A/B)
Relegation - UEFA Nations League (League B)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 France 6 4 1 1 12:6 13
2 Italy 6 4 1 1 13:8 13
3 Belgium 6 1 1 4 6:9 4
4 Israel 6 1 1 4 5:13 4
Promotion - UEFA Nations League 2024/2025 (League A - Play Offs)
Relegation - UEFA Nations League 2024/2025 (Relegation - League A/B)
Relegation - UEFA Nations League (League B)

League Standings (Group 3)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Germany 6 4 2 0 18:4 14
2 Netherlands 6 2 3 1 13:7 9
3 Hungary 6 1 3 2 4:11 6
4 Bosnia & Herzegovina 6 0 2 4 4:17 2
Promotion - UEFA Nations League 2024/2025 (League A - Play Offs)
Relegation - UEFA Nations League 2024/2025 (Relegation - League A/B)
Relegation - UEFA Nations League (League B)

League Standings (Group 4)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Spain 6 5 1 0 13:4 16
2 Denmark 6 2 2 2 7:5 8
3 Serbia 6 1 3 2 3:6 6
4 Switzerland 6 0 2 4 6:14 2
Promotion - UEFA Nations League 2024/2025 (League A - Play Offs)
Relegation - UEFA Nations League 2024/2025 (Relegation - League A/B)
Relegation - UEFA Nations League (League B)