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Stadium Background

France vs Spain

World World

World Championship 2026 AT&T Stadium, Arlington, TX
Our Tip

Match Events

9'
Rabiot A.
22' Event
Oyarzabal M.
(Penalty)
30'
Sub
Saliba W. In: Lacroix M.
Out: Saliba W.

AI Match Summary

This match ends 0-2, with Spain advancing. Cup football at its most decisive.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

32%
France
15%
Draws
53%
Spain
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Spain

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

53% / Medium Confidence
  • Spain carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Win probability leans Spain's way, sitting at 50%.
  • Spain arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
  • Historical meetings favor Spain, who have won 2 of the last 5 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • These two have met 5 times recently and Spain have taken 4 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71%
France Clean Sheet 18%
Spain Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric France Spain
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 20 23
Draws 2 6
Losses 7 1
Goals Scored 2.31 2.4
Goals Conceded 1.17 0.77
Expected Goals (xG) 1.38 1.31
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 14, 2026 World Championship
France vs Spain
0:2
Jun 5, 2025 UEFA Nations League
Spain vs France
5:4
Jul 9, 2024 Euro
Spain vs France
2:1
Oct 10, 2021 UEFA Nations League
Spain vs France
1:2
Mar 28, 2017 Friendly International
France vs Spain
0:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

France Compare

Avg xG / game 1.06
Avg xA / game 0.69

Spain Compare

Top Goalscorer Porro P.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.19
Avg xA / game 0.73

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

France 23 / 100
Spain 47 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
France Spain

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Spain Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:6
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: France scored in 90% of their last 29 outings.

Historical meetings average 3.80 goals per match.

Recent resilience: France stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Spain's defensive record shows goals conceded in 43% of 30 matches.

Scoring Trends

France VS Spain
2.5 Goals Scored 2
0.63 Goals Conceded 0.25
88% Over 1.5 63%
75% Over 2.5 50%
38% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

France

(Home)
18 Jul
France
4 : 6
England
14 Jul
France
0 : 2
Spain
09 Jul
France
2 : 0
Morocco
04 Jul
Paraguay
0 : 1
France
30 Jun
France
3 : 0
Sweden
Page 1 of 6

Spain

(Away)
19 Jul
Spain
1 : 0
Argentina
14 Jul
France
0 : 2
Spain
10 Jul
Spain
2 : 1
Belgium
06 Jul
Portugal
0 : 1
Spain
02 Jul
Spain
3 : 0
Austria
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

1/16-finals
Germany 1
Paraguay 2
France 3
Sweden 0
South Africa 0
Canada 1
Netherlands 1
Morocco 2
Portugal 2
Croatia 1
Spain 3
Austria 0
USA 2
Bosnia & Herzegovina 0
Belgium 3
Senegal 2
Brazil 2
Japan 1
Ivory Coast 1
Norway 2
Mexico 2
Ecuador 0
England 2
D.R. Congo 1
Argentina 3
Cape Verde 2
Australia 1
Egypt 2
Switzerland 2
Algeria 0
Colombia 1
Ghana 0
1/8-finals
Paraguay 0
France 1
Canada 0
Morocco 3
Portugal 0
Spain 1
USA 1
Belgium 4
Brazil 1
Norway 2
Mexico 2
England 3
Argentina 3
Egypt 2
Switzerland 1
Colombia 0
Quarter-finals
France 2
Morocco 0
Spain 2
Belgium 1
Norway 1
England 2
Argentina 3
Switzerland 1
Semi-finals
France 0
Spain 2
England 1
Argentina 2
Final
Spain 1
Argentina 0
France 4
England 6