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Stadium Background

France vs Spain

World World

World Championship 2026 AT&T Stadium, Arlington, TX
Our Tip

Match Events

9'
Rabiot A.
22' Event
Oyarzabal M.
(Penalty)
30'
Sub
Saliba W. In: Lacroix M.
Out: Saliba W.

AI Match Summary

This match ends 0-2, with Spain advancing. Cup football at its most decisive.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

36%
France
30%
Draws
34%
Spain
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: France

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

66% / Medium Confidence
  • Spain carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Win probability leans France's way, sitting at 36%.
  • Spain arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
  • Historical meetings favor Spain, who have won 2 of the last 5 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • These two have met 5 times recently and Spain have taken 4 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 70.6%
France Clean Sheet 20%
Spain Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric France Spain
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 21 23
Draws 2 6
Losses 7 1
Goals Scored 2.5 1.63
Goals Conceded 0.63 0.25
Expected Goals (xG) 2.50 1.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.63 0.25

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 14, 2026 World Championship
France vs Spain
0:2
Jun 5, 2025 UEFA Nations League
Spain vs France
5:4
Jul 9, 2024 Euro
Spain vs France
2:1
Oct 10, 2021 UEFA Nations League
Spain vs France
1:2
Mar 28, 2017 Friendly International
France vs Spain
0:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

France Compare

Avg xG / game 1.92
Avg xA / game 1.25

Spain Compare

Top Goalscorer Porro P.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.48
Avg xA / game 0.91

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

France 36 / 100
Spain 33 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
France Spain

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: France scored in 90% of their last 30 outings.

Historical meetings average 3.80 goals per match.

Recent resilience: France stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Spain's defensive record shows goals conceded in 43% of 30 matches.

Scoring Trends

France VS Spain
2.5 Goals Scored 1.63
0.63 Goals Conceded 0.25
88% Over 1.5 50%
75% Over 2.5 38%
38% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

France

(Home)
18 Jul
France
4 : 6
England
14 Jul
France
0 : 2
Spain
09 Jul
France
2 : 0
Morocco
04 Jul
Paraguay
0 : 1
France
30 Jun
France
3 : 0
Sweden
Page 1 of 6

Spain

(Away)
19 Jul
Spain
1 : 0
Argentina
14 Jul
France
0 : 2
Spain
10 Jul
Spain
2 : 1
Belgium
06 Jul
Portugal
0 : 1
Spain
02 Jul
Spain
3 : 0
Austria
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Tournament Bracket & Draw

1/16-finals
Germany1
Paraguay2
France3
Sweden0
South Africa0
Canada1
Netherlands1
Morocco2
Portugal2
Croatia1
Spain3
Austria0
USA2
Bosnia & Herzegovina0
Belgium3
Senegal2
Brazil2
Japan1
Ivory Coast1
Norway2
Mexico2
Ecuador0
England2
D.R. Congo1
Argentina3
Cape Verde2
Australia1
Egypt2
Switzerland2
Algeria0
Colombia1
Ghana0
1/8-finals
Paraguay0
France1
Canada0
Morocco3
Portugal0
Spain1
USA1
Belgium4
Brazil1
Norway2
Mexico2
England3
Argentina3
Egypt2
Switzerland1
Colombia0
Quarter-finals
France2
Morocco0
Spain2
Belgium1
Norway1
England2
Argentina3
Switzerland1
Semi-finals
France0
Spain2
England1
Argentina2
Final
Spain1
Argentina0
France4
England6