Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Freiburg II vs Mainz II

Germany Germany

Regionalliga Sudwest 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

30' Event
Rudlin F.
(Penalty)
55' Event
Gleiber D.
89' Event
James J.

AI Match Summary

Freiburg II in this Regionalliga Sudwest 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 2-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Freiburg II.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

22%
Freiburg II
28%
Draws
50%
Mainz II
Draw rate projection: 28% Favored: Mainz II

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

76% / High Confidence
  • Freiburg II average 2 goals a game right now, well clear of Mainz II's 0.75.
  • Model gives Mainz II a 50% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • These two have met 5 times recently and Freiburg II have taken 4 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 44%
Over 4.5 Goals 20%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 77%
Freiburg II Clean Sheet 20%
Mainz II Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Freiburg II Mainz II
Matches Played 29 28
Wins 14 14
Draws 3 6
Losses 12 8
Goals Scored 2 0.75
Goals Conceded 1.5 1.25
Expected Goals (xG) 2.00 0.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.50 1.25

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 16, 2026 Regionalliga Sudwest
Mainz II vs Freiburg II
0:4
Nov 16, 2025 Regionalliga Sudwest
Freiburg II vs Mainz II
2:1
May 17, 2025 Regionalliga Sudwest
Freiburg II vs Mainz II
1:3
Nov 16, 2024 Regionalliga Sudwest
Mainz II vs Freiburg II
0:1
Feb 28, 2021 Regionalliga Sudwest
Freiburg II vs Mainz II
3:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Freiburg II Compare

Top Goalscorer James J.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.54
Avg xA / game 1

Mainz II Compare

Top Goalscorer Gleiber D.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.42

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Freiburg II 24 / 100
Mainz II 47 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Freiburg II Mainz II

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick MAI Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Freiburg II's goal record stands at 97% scoring rate across 29 recent games.

H2H data points to 3.20 goals as a typical output.

Defensive concern: Mainz II conceded in 68% of 28 recent games.

Solid form: Freiburg II remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Freiburg II VS Mainz II
2 Goals Scored 0.75
1.5 Goals Conceded 1.25
100% Over 1.5 63%
75% Over 2.5 38%
63% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Freiburg II

(Home)
18 Jul
Freiburg II
1 : 1
Schaffhausen
15 Jul
Freiburg II
0 : 3
Bochum II
11 Jul
Ravensburg
0 : 2
Freiburg II
16 May
Mainz II
0 : 4
Freiburg II
09 May
Freiburg II
1 : 3
Kickers Offenbach
Page 1 of 6

Mainz II

(Away)
22 Jul
Mainz II
2 : 1
FC Kreuzlingen
11 Jul
Erfurt
0 : 3
Mainz II
08 Jul
TSV 1881 Gau-Odernheim
0 : 2
Mainz II
04 Jul
Mainz II
1 : 0
Progres Niedercorn
16 May
Mainz II
0 : 4
Freiburg II
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Sonnenhof Grossaspach34208686:4368
2Freiberg34188868:3862
3FSV Frankfurt34169964:4857
4FC 08 Homburg341511871:4256
5TSV Steinbach Haiger341681078:5856
6Kassel341591062:5154
7Stutt. Kickers341731451:4454
8Sandhausen341661253:5654
9Mainz II341411952:4553
10Fulda-Lehnerz3413101151:4449
11Freiburg II341461474:7348
12Astoria Walldorf341381364:6547
13Eintracht Trier341381348:5247
14Kickers Offenbach3411101357:5843
15Alzenau34762145:7427
16Schott Mainz34742340:8325
17Balingen34672138:8725
18Bahlinger344102034:7522
Promotion - 3. Liga (Main)