Sport Picks
Freiburg vs Celta Vigo
Europe
Europa League 2025/2026 Europa-Park Stadion, Freiburg 
Match Events
10'
10'
Grifo V.
Assist: Manzambi J.
32'
32'
Beste J.
Assist: Matanovic I.
46'
46'
Sub
Swedberg W. In: El Abdellaoui J.
Out: Swedberg W.
AI Match Summary
Freiburg in this Europa League 2025/2026 tie, finishing 3-0. One-off knockout football delivers a decisive result.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
44%
35%
21%
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Freiburg
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
44%
/ Low Confidence
- Celta Vigo haven't matched Freiburg's recent run of results.
- Model gives Freiburg a 44% chance of winning this.
- Freiburg have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
- Historical meetings favor Freiburg, who have won 1 of the last 2 encounters.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 81.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 36%
Freiburg Clean Sheet 68%
Celta Vigo Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Freiburg | Celta Vigo |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 30 | 30 |
| Wins | 18 | 9 |
| Draws | 3 | 10 |
| Losses | 9 | 11 |
| Goals Scored | 2.23 | 1.37 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.3 | 1.37 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 2.00 | 0.75 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Apr 16, 2026 Europa League
Celta Vigo vs Freiburg
1:3
Apr 9, 2026 Europa League
Freiburg vs Celta Vigo
3:0
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Freiburg Compare
Top Goalscorer Grifo V.
1 Goals Assists Leader Beste J.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.54
Avg xA / game 1
Celta Vigo Compare
Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.42
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Freiburg 95 / 100
Celta Vigo 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Freiburg Celta Vigo
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Freiburg Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Freiburg's goal record stands at 83% scoring rate across 30 recent games.
Games between these two average 3.50 goals.
Freiburg went unbeaten in 5 of their last 5 games.
Celta Vigo let in goals in 77% of their last 30 matches.
Scoring Trends
Freiburg VS Celta Vigo
3 Goals Scored 1
0.5 Goals Conceded 1
88% Over 1.5 75%
63% Over 2.5 25%
50% Over 3.5 13%
Recent Form & Match History
Freiburg
(Home) 19 Sept
Eintracht Frankfurt
2 : 2 Freiburg
12 Sept
Freiburg
5 : 0 B. Monchengladbach
05 Sept
Paderborn
0 : 1 Freiburg
30 Aug
Freiburg
4 : 1 Werder Bremen
27 Aug
Freiburg
4 : 1 Motherwell
Page 1 of 6
12 Sept
Freiburg
5 : 0 B. Monchengladbach
30 Aug
Freiburg
4 : 1 Werder Bremen
27 Aug
Freiburg
4 : 1 Motherwell
15 Aug
Freiburg
3 : 0 Crystal Palace
08 Aug
Freiburg
2 : 0 Strasbourg
Page 1 of 4
Celta Vigo
(Away) 19 Sept
Celta Vigo
5 : 0 Racing Santander
16 Sept
Omonia
1 : 0 Celta Vigo
13 Sept
Celta Vigo
1 : 1 Malaga
07 Sept
Getafe
1 : 1 Celta Vigo
03 Sept
Real Sociedad
0 : 0 Celta Vigo
Page 1 of 6
16 Sept
Omonia
1 : 0 Celta Vigo
07 Sept
Getafe
1 : 1 Celta Vigo
03 Sept
Real Sociedad
0 : 0 Celta Vigo
22 Aug
Valencia
0 : 0 Celta Vigo
08 Aug
Napoli
1 : 1 Celta Vigo
Page 1 of 4
Tournament Bracket & Draw
1/16-finals
Ludogorets 2
Ferencvaros 3
Braga -
TBD -
Panathinaikos 4
Plzen 3
Betis -
TBD -
Din. Zagreb 4
Genk 6
Freiburg -
TBD -
PAOK 1
Celta Vigo 3
Lyon -
TBD -
Celtic 2
VfB Stuttgart 4
FC Porto -
TBD -
Fenerbahce 2
Nottingham 4
Midtjylland -
TBD -
Brann 0
Bologna 2
AS Roma -
TBD -
Lille 2
Crvena zvezda 1
Aston Villa -
TBD -
1/8-finals
Ferencvaros 2
Braga 4
Panathinaikos 1
Betis 4
Genk 2
Freiburg 5
Celta Vigo 3
Lyon 1
VfB Stuttgart 1
FC Porto 4
Nottingham 3
Midtjylland 2
Bologna 5
AS Roma 4
Lille 0
Aston Villa 3
Quarter-finals
Braga 5
Betis 3
Freiburg 6
Celta Vigo 1
FC Porto 1
Nottingham 2
Bologna 1
Aston Villa 7
Semi-finals
Braga 3
Freiburg 4
Nottingham 1
Aston Villa 4
Final
Freiburg 0
Aston Villa 3
