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Friburguense vs Perolas Negras

Brazil Brazil

Carioca B1 2024
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Match Events

81' Event
Nathan
90'
Ryan Andrade

AI Match Summary

The Carioca B1 2024 game between Friburguense and Perolas Negras finished 0-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Perolas Negras.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

0%
Friburguense
15%
Draws
85%
Perolas Negras
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Perolas Negras

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

85% / Very High Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Perolas Negras come out ahead of Friburguense on wins alone.
  • Win probability leans Perolas Negras's way, sitting at 50%.
  • Regular Carioca B1 2024 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 22.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 65%
Friburguense Clean Sheet 18%
Perolas Negras Clean Sheet 18%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Friburguense Perolas Negras
Matches Played 30 31
Wins 6 12
Draws 7 7
Losses 17 12
Goals Scored 0.57 1.19
Goals Conceded 0.97 1.1
Expected Goals (xG) 0.79 1.36
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 21, 2024 Carioca B1
Friburguense vs Perolas Negras
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Friburguense Compare

Avg xG / game 0.61
Avg xA / game 0.4

Perolas Negras Compare

Top Goalscorer Nathan
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.24
Avg xA / game 0.76

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Friburguense 23 / 100
Perolas Negras 49 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Friburguense Perolas Negras

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Perolas Negras Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Perolas Negras has conceded goals in 74% of their last 31 outings.

Friburguense scored in 47% of their last 30 games.

H2H data points to 1.00 goals as a typical output.

Away concern: Perolas Negras has suffered 2 losses in 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Friburguense VS Perolas Negras
0.2 Goals Scored 1.13
1.6 Goals Conceded 1.38
40% Over 1.5 75%
20% Over 2.5 38%
20% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Friburguense

(Home)
08 Nov
Nova Cidade
1 : 0
Friburguense
05 Nov
Paduano EC
2 : 0
Friburguense
01 Nov
Friburguense
0 : 1
Niteroiense
25 Oct
Sao Cristovao
3 : 1
Friburguense
18 Oct
Friburguense
0 : 1
Duque de Caxias
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Perolas Negras

(Away)
22 Jul
Marica
3 : 0
Perolas Negras
15 Jul
Perolas Negras
0 : 0
Marica
04 Jul
Marica
2 : 0
Perolas Negras
27 Jun
Cabofriense
1 : 2
Perolas Negras
23 Jun
Perolas Negras
5 : 1
Santa Cruz RJ
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Artsul 8 5 1 2 10:5 16
2 Paduano EC 8 5 1 2 6:3 16
3 Sao Goncalo 8 3 4 1 10:2 13
4 Perolas Negras 8 3 2 3 8:9 11
5 Friburguense 8 2 4 2 5:4 10
6 Nova Cidade 8 2 4 2 10:11 10
7 Sao Cristovao 8 2 1 5 3:9 7
8 Serrano FC 8 1 3 4 5:9 6
9 Belford Roxo 8 0 6 2 5:10 6
Promotion - Carioca B1 2024 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Carioca B2 2024 (Main)