Sport Picks

England

Southern League Premier South 2024/2025

Dorchester

Our Tip

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Heatmaps Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Frome Town play Dorchester in the Southern League Premier South 2024/2025. It looks like a close match. Recently, Frome Town averaged 1.24 goals scored and 1.14 conceded. Dorchester averaged 1.19 goals scored and 1.94 conceded. In past meetings, Frome Town won 2, Dorchester won 3, and they drew 0. Their last match on Apr 18, 2025 ended 2:3. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.48 for Frome Town and 1.24 for Dorchester. This points to a Frome Town double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

45%

Frome Town

20%

Draws

35%

Dorchester

Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Frome Town

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

73% / Medium Confidence

Frome Town picked up more points recently compared to Dorchester.
Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.48 vs 1.24 xG).
Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%

Over 1.5 Goals 68%

Over 2.5 Goals 54%

Over 3.5 Goals 32%

Over 4.5 Goals 16%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 51%

Frome Town Clean Sheet 19%

Dorchester Clean Sheet 10%

First Half Goal 61%

Second Half Goal 65%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Frome Town	Dorchester
Matches Played	29	31
Wins	10	7
Draws	7	10
Losses	12	14
Goals Scored	1.24	1.19
Goals Conceded	1.14	1.94

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 18, 2025 Southern League Premier South

Frome Town vs Dorchester

Possession: 59% - 42% Cards: 3 - 2

2:3

Sep 7, 2024 Southern League Premier South

Dorchester vs Frome Town

Possession: 54% - 47% Cards: 4 - 4

4:0

Feb 12, 2019 Southern League Premier South

Dorchester vs Frome Town

Possession: 43% - 60% Cards: 4 - 4

0:1

Nov 27, 2018 Southern League Premier South

Frome Town vs Dorchester

Possession: 43% - 42% Cards: 0 - 1

0:1

Nov 15, 2017 Southern Premier League

Frome Town vs Dorchester

Possession: 54% - 46% Cards: 2 - 0

3:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Frome Town Compare

Top Goalscorer Hopkins A.

1 Goals

Assists Leader Teale S.

1 Ast

Avg xG / game 0

Avg xA / game 0

Dorchester Compare

Top Goalscorer Pitman B.

1 Goals

Avg xG / game 1.25

Avg xA / game 0.77

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Frome Town 44 / 100

Dorchester 34 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Frome Town Dorchester

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Frome Town or Draw (1X)

Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals

First Half Result Home Win (HT)

BTTS Outcome No (NG)

Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win

Value Edge +21.5%

2.70

Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals

Value Edge +12.3%

2.08

*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Frome Town attacking → ← attacking Dorchester

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Frome Town scored in 55% of their last 29 games.

Dorchester let in goals in 81% of their last 31 matches.

Games between these two average 3.00 goals.

Frome Town went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Dorchester lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

37 Points in last 5 31

0.00 Goals expected (xG) 1.38

0.00 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.75

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Merthyr Town	42	27	10	5	105:46	91
2	AFC Totton	42	25	13	4	85:35	88
3	Walton & Hersham	42	24	11	7	90:54	83
4	Gloucester City	42	21	14	7	81:53	77
5	Dorchester	42	19	18	5	75:48	75
6	Havant & Waterlooville	42	21	11	10	84:49	74
7	Hungerford	42	16	11	15	63:55	59
8	Hanwell Town	42	15	13	14	58:62	58
9	Taunton Town	42	13	18	11	64:58	57
10	Wimborne	42	15	12	15	49:56	57
11	Sholing	42	14	10	18	59:68	52
12	Gosport Borough	42	13	12	17	53:61	51
13	Plymouth Parkway	42	14	8	20	63:77	50
14	Poole Town	42	13	10	19	48:62	49
15	Basingstoke	42	11	15	16	62:64	48
16	Chertsey Town	42	14	5	23	67:82	47
17	Tiverton	42	12	11	19	39:71	47
18	Bracknell Town	42	11	13	18	57:72	46
19	Winchester City	42	12	10	20	54:74	46
20	Swindon Supermarine	42	12	8	22	60:78	44
21	Frome Town	42	9	13	20	39:60	40
22	Marlow	42	5	6	31	45:115	21