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Frosinone vs Lecce - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Italy Italy

Serie A Stadio Benito Stirpe, Frosinone
Thu, Oct 29, 2026
VS
05:30 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Frosinone host Lecce in the Serie A. This looks like a genuine coin-flip fixture. Lecce have shipped 1.43 goals a game lately, while Frosinone have conceded 1.14 and scored 2.07. Past meetings favor Lecce slightly — 0-3-2 in wins/losses/draws. They last met on Mar 3, 2024, ending 1:1. Model xG sits at 1.88 vs 1.25, favoring Frosinone. The model's pick is Home (1) to win or Over 2.5 goals.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

53%
Frosinone
15%
Draws
32%
Lecce
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Frosinone

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

53% / Medium Confidence
  • Frosinone carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Win probability leans Frosinone's way, sitting at 50%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 25%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 70.2%
Frosinone Clean Sheet 19%
Lecce Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Frosinone Lecce
Matches Played 28 28
Wins 16 11
Draws 8 3
Losses 4 14
Goals Scored 2.07 1.11
Goals Conceded 1.14 1.43
Expected Goals (xG) 1.88 1.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 3, 2024 Serie A
Frosinone vs Lecce
1:1
Dec 16, 2023 Serie A
Lecce vs Frosinone
2:1
Apr 2, 2022 Serie B
Lecce vs Frosinone
1:0
Nov 20, 2021 Serie B
Frosinone vs Lecce
0:0
Mar 20, 2021 Serie B
Frosinone vs Lecce
0:3

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Frosinone 49 / 100
Lecce 22 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Frosinone Lecce

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Frosinone Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Frosinone scored in 93% of their last 28 games.

Defensive concern: Lecce conceded in 75% of 28 recent games.

These sides typically produce 1.80 goals when they meet.

Frosinone went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Frosinone VS Lecce
2 Goals Scored 1.13
1.38 Goals Conceded 1.75
100% Over 1.5 88%
75% Over 2.5 63%
25% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Frosinone

(Home)
25 Oct
Atalanta
4 : 4
Frosinone
16 Oct
Frosinone
4 : 2
Sassuolo
10 Oct
Napoli
3 : 0
Frosinone
02 Oct
Frosinone
2 : 1
Benevento
20 Sept
Frosinone
2 : 0
Como
Page 1 of 6

Lecce

(Away)
25 Oct
Lecce
0 : 2
Juventus
18 Oct
Udinese
0 : 3
Lecce
11 Oct
Lecce
1 : 2
Bologna
20 Sept
AC Milan
3 : 0
Lecce
13 Sept
Lecce
3 : 2
Monza
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Inter 8 7 1 0 23:10 22
2 Lazio 8 7 1 0 16:5 22
3 AS Roma 8 5 3 0 19:6 18
4 AC Milan 8 5 3 0 16:7 18
5 Como 8 5 2 1 14:7 17
6 Frosinone 8 4 2 2 17:13 14
7 Juventus 8 4 2 2 11:8 14
8 Torino 8 4 1 3 13:11 13
9 Cagliari 8 4 1 3 6:9 13
10 Napoli 8 3 2 3 13:10 11
11 Atalanta 8 3 1 4 14:15 10
12 Lecce 8 3 0 5 9:14 9
13 Bologna 8 2 2 4 8:10 8
14 Sassuolo 8 2 2 4 12:16 8
15 Monza 8 2 1 5 15:18 7
16 Genoa 8 2 1 5 6:13 7
17 Udinese 8 1 1 6 9:18 4
18 Fiorentina 8 1 1 6 9:19 4
19 Parma 8 1 1 6 5:15 4
20 Venezia 8 1 0 7 6:17 3
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (League phase)
Promotion - Europa League 2027/2028 (League phase)
Promotion - Conference League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Relegation - Serie B 2027/2028 (Main)