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Fulgens Foligno vs Poggibonsi Prediction & H2H Stats

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Serie D - Group E 2024/2025
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Match Events

82' Event
Khribech W.

AI Match Summary

The Serie D - Group E 2024/2025 game between Fulgens Foligno and Poggibonsi finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Fulgens Foligno.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

41%
Fulgens Foligno
30%
Draws
29%
Poggibonsi
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Fulgens Foligno

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

30% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Fulgens Foligno come out ahead of Poggibonsi on wins alone.
  • Model gives Fulgens Foligno a 42% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 74.6%
Fulgens Foligno Clean Sheet 20%
Poggibonsi Clean Sheet 14%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Fulgens Foligno Poggibonsi
Matches Played 30 32
Wins 15 7
Draws 8 8
Losses 7 17
Goals Scored 1.83 0.78
Goals Conceded 1.33 1.25
Expected Goals (xG) 1.04 1.11
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 4, 2025 Serie D - Group E
Fulgens Foligno vs Poggibonsi
1:0
Dec 22, 2024 Serie D - Group E
Poggibonsi vs Fulgens Foligno
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Fulgens Foligno Compare

Top Goalscorer Khribech W.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.8
Avg xA / game 0.52

Poggibonsi Compare

Avg xG / game 1.01
Avg xA / game 0.62

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Fulgens Foligno 42 / 100
Poggibonsi 37 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Fulgens Foligno Poggibonsi

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Fulgens Foligno scored in 97% of their last 30 games.

Poggibonsi has conceded goals in 75% of their last 32 outings.

Solid form: Fulgens Foligno remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Games between these two average 1.00 goals.

Scoring Trends

- VS Poggibonsi
0 Goals Scored 1.13
0 Goals Conceded 0.88
0% Over 1.5 50%
0% Over 2.5 38%
0% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Fulgens Foligno

(Home)
11 May
Fulgens Foligno
1 : 2
Orvietana
04 May
Fulgens Foligno
1 : 0
Poggibonsi
27 Apr
Livorno
2 : 1
Fulgens Foligno
17 Apr
Fulgens Foligno
2 : 1
Seravezza Pozzi
12 Apr
Ghiviborgo
1 : 1
Fulgens Foligno
Page 1 of 6

Poggibonsi

(Away)
10 May
Orvietana
1 : 0
Poggibonsi
03 May
Poggibonsi
1 : 0
Scandicci
26 Apr
Cannara
3 : 2
Poggibonsi
19 Apr
Poggibonsi
0 : 0
Tau
12 Apr
Camaiore Calcio
1 : 1
Poggibonsi
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Livorno 34 21 9 4 74:44 72
2 Fulgens Foligno 34 17 9 8 61:44 60
3 Seravezza Pozzi 34 16 11 7 53:39 59
4 Ghiviborgo 34 17 4 13 65:57 55
5 Orvietana 34 15 8 11 44:41 53
6 Siena 34 14 10 10 35:32 52
7 Grosseto 34 13 11 10 39:34 50
8 Ostiamare 34 12 9 13 49:53 45
9 Poggibonsi 34 12 7 15 32:36 43
10 San Donato Tavarnelle 34 11 10 13 26:26 43
11 Montevarchi 34 9 14 11 36:39 41
12 Flaminia 34 10 10 14 42:43 40
13 Follonica Gavorrano 34 10 10 14 40:45 40
14 Terranuova Traiana 34 8 15 11 34:47 39
15 Figline 34 9 11 14 29:33 38
16 Sporting Trestina 34 9 11 14 35:45 38
17 Sangiovannese 34 9 9 16 30:38 36
18 Fezzanese 34 6 8 20 35:63 26
Promotion - Serie D - Group E 2024/2025 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie D - Group E 2024/2025 (Play Out)