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Gabala vs Araz PFK

Azerbaijan Azerbaijan

Premier League 2025/2026 Qäbälä Şähär Stadionu, Gabala
Our Tip

Match Events

28'
Sierra J.
45'
Musayev M.
46'
Sub
Diniyev C. In: Andrade P.
Out: Diniyev C.

AI Match Summary

Neither side could be separated in this Premier League 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 1-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

47%
Gabala
20%
Draws
33%
Araz PFK
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Gabala

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

47% / Medium Confidence
  • Gabala average 1.32 goals a game right now, well clear of Araz PFK's 1.29.
  • 47% — that's where the model lands on Gabala taking it.
  • Regular Premier League 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73%
Gabala Clean Sheet 20%
Araz PFK Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Gabala Araz PFK
Matches Played 31 28
Wins 10 10
Draws 6 5
Losses 15 13
Goals Scored 1.32 1.29
Goals Conceded 1.45 1.79
Expected Goals (xG) 1.50 1.06
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 25, 2026 Premier League
Gabala vs Araz PFK
1:1
Nov 30, 2025 Premier League
Gabala vs Araz PFK
2:1
Aug 30, 2025 Premier League
Araz PFK vs Gabala
2:1
May 19, 2024 Premier League
Gabala vs Araz PFK
2:0
Mar 16, 2024 Premier League
Araz PFK vs Gabala
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Gabala Compare

Avg xG / game 1.15
Avg xA / game 0.75

Araz PFK Compare

Top Goalscorer Paro I.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.59

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Gabala 49 / 100
Araz PFK 22 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Gabala Araz PFK

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Gabala Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Gabala found the back of the net in 61% of recent matches (31 games).

Araz PFK has conceded goals in 75% of their last 28 outings.

Games between these two average 2.40 goals.

Gabala has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Gabala VS Araz PFK
1.13 Goals Scored 1.25
0.88 Goals Conceded 1.88
63% Over 1.5 88%
25% Over 2.5 63%
13% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Gabala

(Home)
14 Aug
Turan
1 : 0
Gabala
28 May
Gabala
2 : 0
Mingachevir
21 May
Gabala
3 : 1
Shamakhi
15 May
Karvan
1 : 2
Gabala
09 May
Gabala
1 : 1
Qarabag Agdam
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Araz PFK

(Away)
23 May
Araz PFK
3 : 2
Zira FK
15 May
Araz PFK
2 : 0
Kapaz
09 May
SumQayit FK
2 : 1
Araz PFK
02 May
Araz PFK
0 : 1
Imisli FK
25 Apr
Gabala
1 : 1
Araz PFK
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Sabah Baku 33 24 6 3 75:25 78
2 Qarabag Agdam 33 21 6 6 71:27 69
3 Turan 33 17 8 8 44:27 59
4 Neftci Baku 33 16 11 6 57:32 59
5 Zira FK 33 13 14 6 43:36 53
6 Araz PFK 33 13 7 13 44:58 46
7 SumQayit FK 33 12 5 16 45:49 41
8 Shamakhi 33 9 11 13 31:40 38
9 Imisli FK 33 7 13 13 23:43 34
10 Kapaz 33 8 3 22 25:61 27
11 Gabala 33 7 6 20 32:49 27
12 Karvan 33 3 6 24 23:66 15
Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - Europa League (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Relegation - I Liqa (Main)
Relegation - Premier League 2025/2026 (Relegation)