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Gafsa vs Kasserine

Tunisia Tunisia

Ligue 2 2025/2026
Gafsa Logo

Gafsa

0 - 1
FT
Kasserine Logo

Kasserine

Our Tip

Match Events

6' Event
Ferjani W.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

The Ligue 2 2025/2026 game between Gafsa and Kasserine finished 0-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Kasserine.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

47%
Gafsa
30%
Draws
23%
Kasserine
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Gafsa

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

47% / Medium Confidence
  • Gafsa haven't matched Kasserine's recent run of results.
  • Gafsa are the model's pick here, at 40%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30.400000000000002%
Gafsa Clean Sheet 68%
Kasserine Clean Sheet 19%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Gafsa Kasserine
Matches Played 32 31
Wins 12 17
Draws 7 5
Losses 13 9
Goals Scored 1.09 1.42
Goals Conceded 1.25 0.81
Expected Goals (xG) 0.76 1.56
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 21, 2026 Ligue 2
Gafsa vs Kasserine
0:1
Oct 19, 2025 Ligue 2
Kasserine vs Gafsa
2:1
Feb 16, 2020 Ligue 2
Gafsa vs Kasserine
2:1
Nov 10, 2019 Tunisia Cup
Gafsa vs Kasserine
2:1
Sep 28, 2019 Ligue 2
Kasserine vs Gafsa
1:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Gafsa Compare

Avg xG / game 0.58
Avg xA / game 0.38

Kasserine Compare

Top Goalscorer Ferjani W.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.42
Avg xA / game 0.87

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Gafsa 50 / 100
Kasserine 28 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Gafsa Kasserine

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Gafsa Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Gafsa scored in 69% of their last 32 games.

Defensive concern: Kasserine conceded in 68% of 31 recent games.

Historical meetings average 2.80 goals per match.

Gafsa has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Gafsa VS Kasserine
0.88 Goals Scored 1.25
1.88 Goals Conceded 0.63
63% Over 1.5 50%
63% Over 2.5 25%
25% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Gafsa

(Home)
12 May
Gafsa
5 : 2
Sidi Bouzid
02 May
Ariana
1 : 1
Gafsa
28 Apr
Gafsa
1 : 0
Jendouba Sport
19 Apr
Ksour Essef
4 : 2
Gafsa
11 Apr
Gafsa
0 : 0
Redeyef
Page 1 of 7

Kasserine

(Away)
25 May
Hammam-Lif
1 : 0
Kasserine
12 May
Kasserine
1 : 0
Ksour Essef
02 May
Redeyef
1 : 0
Kasserine
28 Apr
Kasserine
1 : 1
Stade Gabesien
19 Apr
Djelma
1 : 0
Kasserine
Page 1 of 7

League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Hamam-Sousse 26 15 6 5 40:19 51
2 Hammam-Lif 26 15 6 5 36:14 51
3 US Tataouine 26 15 6 5 34:16 51
4 Sfax Railways 26 13 7 6 35:26 46
5 Sporting Ben Arous 26 8 10 8 30:19 34
6 Kerkennah 26 8 10 8 27:27 34
7 Chebba 26 8 9 9 33:37 33
8 Msaken 26 7 10 9 23:28 31
9 BS Bouhajla 26 7 9 10 21:23 30
10 Megrine 26 7 9 10 25:35 30
11 EM Mahdia 26 6 10 10 18:25 28
12 AS Agareb 26 7 7 12 22:33 28
13 Bousalem 26 6 7 13 19:34 25
14 Menzel Bourguiba 26 3 8 15 15:42 17
Promotion - Ligue Professionnelle 1 (Main)
Promotion - Ligue 2 2025/2026 (Promotion - Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 PS Sakiet Eddaier 26 16 8 2 54:15 56
2 Stade Gabesien 26 15 8 3 43:16 53
3 Kasserine 26 14 5 7 31:18 47
4 Jendouba Sport 26 9 11 6 34:24 38
5 Korba 26 9 10 7 21:20 37
6 Bouchamma 26 9 8 9 35:30 35
7 Gafsa 26 9 7 10 28:31 34
8 Ariana 26 8 8 10 26:32 32
9 Ksour Essef 26 9 5 12 40:34 32
10 Redeyef 26 8 8 10 27:39 32
11 Kalaa 26 9 3 14 28:44 30
12 Moknine 26 7 8 11 29:36 29
13 Djelma 26 6 8 12 16:33 26
14 Sidi Bouzid 26 3 5 18 17:57 14
Promotion - Ligue Professionnelle 1 (Main)
Promotion - Ligue 2 2025/2026 (Promotion - Play Offs)