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Gainsborough vs Workington

England England

NPL Premier Division
Our Tip

Match Events

73' Event
Ashton O.
79' Event
Preston F.

AI Match Summary

The NPL Premier Division game between Gainsborough and Workington finished 2-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Gainsborough.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

31%
Gainsborough
15%
Draws
54%
Workington
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Workington

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

54% / Medium Confidence
  • Workington carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Model gives Workington a 54% chance of winning this.
  • Regular NPL Premier Division form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 33.2%
Gainsborough Clean Sheet 10%
Workington Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Gainsborough Workington
Matches Played 29 28
Wins 9 13
Draws 8 6
Losses 12 9
Goals Scored 1.31 1.5
Goals Conceded 1.38 1.39
Expected Goals (xG) 1.56 2.06
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 8, 2026 NPL Premier Division
Gainsborough vs Workington
2:0
Feb 14, 2026 NPL Premier Division
Gainsborough vs Workington
3:3
Oct 21, 2025 NPL Premier Division
Workington vs Gainsborough
1:2
Mar 15, 2025 NPL Premier Division
Workington vs Gainsborough
1:1
Nov 9, 2024 NPL Premier Division
Gainsborough vs Workington
3:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Gainsborough Compare

Top Goalscorer Ashton O.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Preston F.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.2
Avg xA / game 0.78

Workington Compare

Avg xG / game 1.87
Avg xA / game 1.14

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Gainsborough 14 / 100
Workington 77 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Gainsborough Workington

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Workington Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Historical meetings average 3.20 goals per match.

Attacking prowess: Gainsborough scored in 69% of their last 29 outings.

Defensive concern: Workington conceded in 71% of 28 recent games.

Gainsborough has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Gainsborough VS Workington
1.63 Goals Scored 2.5
1.63 Goals Conceded 1.5
88% Over 1.5 100%
63% Over 2.5 100%
38% Over 3.5 63%

Recent Form & Match History

Gainsborough

(Home)
19 Sept
Leamington
1 : 1
Gainsborough
12 Sept
Gainsborough
0 : 2
Avro
05 Sept
Sherwood Colliery
2 : 4
Gainsborough
31 Aug
Gainsborough
0 : 3
Cleethorpes
28 Aug
Ashton United
1 : 2
Gainsborough
Page 1 of 6

Workington

(Away)
19 Sept
Bury FC
5 : 1
Workington
12 Sept
Workington
3 : 1
Ilkeston
05 Sept
Workington
3 : 0
Marske United
31 Aug
Lancaster
0 : 3
Workington
29 Aug
Workington
3 : 2
Leek Town
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Cleethorpes 9 7 1 1 24:5 22
2 Avro 9 7 1 1 28:16 22
3 Redcar Athletic 9 6 3 0 18:6 21
4 Guiseley 9 6 1 2 22:10 19
5 Warrington Town 9 5 2 2 18:14 17
6 Bury FC 9 5 1 3 19:8 16
7 Curzon Ashton 9 5 1 3 18:10 16
8 Workington 9 5 1 3 17:15 16
9 Gainsborough 9 4 1 4 14:12 13
10 Warrington Rylands 9 4 1 4 12:13 13
11 Alfreton 9 4 0 5 15:10 12
12 Whitby 9 4 0 5 14:24 12
13 Ashton United 9 3 2 4 10:9 11
14 Hyde 9 3 2 4 10:17 11
15 AFC Emley 9 2 4 3 8:15 10
16 Lancaster 9 3 1 5 9:17 10
17 Bamber Bridge 10 2 3 5 14:27 9
18 Stockton 10 2 2 6 13:20 8
19 Ilkeston 9 2 1 6 6:21 7
20 Leek Town 9 1 3 5 17:19 6
21 Quorn 9 1 3 5 12:23 6
22 United of Manchester 9 1 2 6 12:19 5
Promotion - National League North 2027/2028 (Main)
Promotion - NPL Premier Division (Play Offs)
Promotion - NPL Premier Division (Play Offs)