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Stadium Background

Gambia vs Madagascar

Africa Africa

Africa Cup of Nations 2025 Ben M'Hamed El Abdi Stadium, El Jadida
Gambia Logo

Gambia

1 - 0
FT
Madagascar Logo

Madagascar

Our Tip

Match Events

27'
Laiton S.
28' Event
Barrow M.
Penalty Missed
30'
Ceesay J.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Gambia in this Africa Cup of Nations 2025 tie, finishing 1-0. One-off knockout football delivers a decisive result.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

29%
Gambia
20%
Draws
51%
Madagascar
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Madagascar

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

29% / Low Confidence
  • Madagascar have won more games recently than Gambia.
  • 29% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • Madagascar arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
  • Historical meetings favor Gambia, who have won 1 of the last 2 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 88%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 34%
Gambia Clean Sheet 68%
Madagascar Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Gambia Madagascar
Matches Played 28 28
Wins 8 12
Draws 7 4
Losses 13 12
Goals Scored 1.54 1.39
Goals Conceded 1.57 1.43
Expected Goals (xG) 1.88 1.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 14, 2024 Africa Cup of Nations
Gambia vs Madagascar
1:0
Oct 11, 2024 Africa Cup of Nations
Madagascar vs Gambia
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Gambia Compare

Top Goalscorer Barrow M.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.45
Avg xA / game 0.94

Madagascar Compare

Avg xG / game 1.71
Avg xA / game 1.04

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Gambia 41 / 100
Madagascar 30 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Gambia Madagascar

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Gambia Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Gambia scored in 75% of their last 28 outings.

Defensive concern: Madagascar conceded in 75% of 28 recent games.

Games between these two average 1.50 goals.

Gambia has registered 2 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Gambia VS Madagascar
2.38 Goals Scored 2.13
1.63 Goals Conceded 1.38
88% Over 1.5 88%
75% Over 2.5 63%
75% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Gambia

(Home)
29 May
Iran
3 : 1
Gambia
31 Mar
Senegal
3 : 1
Gambia
18 Nov
Kuwait
2 : 2
Gambia
14 Oct
Seychelles
0 : 7
Gambia
10 Oct
Gambia
3 : 4
Gabon
Page 1 of 6

Madagascar

(Away)
02 Jun
Morocco
4 : 0
Madagascar
31 Mar
Equatorial Guinea
1 : 1
Madagascar
28 Mar
Kyrgyzstan
2 : 5
Madagascar
17 Nov
Madagascar
2 : 0
Equatorial Guinea
12 Oct
Mali
4 : 1
Madagascar
Page 1 of 6

League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Comoros 6 3 3 0 7:4 12
2 Tunisia 6 3 1 2 7:6 10
3 Gambia 6 2 2 2 6:6 8
4 Madagascar 6 0 2 4 4:8 2
Promotion - Africa Cup of Nations 2025 (Main)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Morocco 6 6 0 0 26:2 18
2 Gabon 6 3 1 2 7:9 10
3 Lesotho 6 1 1 4 2:13 4
4 Central Africa 6 1 0 5 3:14 3
Promotion - Africa Cup of Nations 2025 (Main)

League Standings (Group 3)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Egypt 6 4 2 0 12:2 14
2 Botswana 6 2 2 2 4:7 8
3 Mauritania 6 2 1 3 3:6 7
4 Cape Verde 6 1 1 4 3:7 4
Promotion - Africa Cup of Nations 2025 (Main)

League Standings (Group 4)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Nigeria 6 3 2 1 9:3 11
2 Benin 6 2 2 2 7:7 8
3 Rwanda 6 2 2 2 5:7 8
4 Libya 6 1 2 3 3:7 5
Promotion - Africa Cup of Nations 2025 (Main)

League Standings (Group 5)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Algeria 6 5 1 0 16:2 16
2 Equatorial Guinea 6 2 2 2 5:8 8
3 Togo 6 1 2 3 7:10 5
4 Liberia 6 1 1 4 4:12 4
Promotion - Africa Cup of Nations 2025 (Main)

League Standings (Group 6)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Angola 6 4 2 0 7:2 14
2 Sudan 6 2 2 2 4:6 8
3 Niger 6 2 1 3 7:6 7
4 Ghana 6 0 3 3 3:7 3
Promotion - Africa Cup of Nations 2025 (Main)

League Standings (Group 7)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Zambia 6 4 1 1 7:4 13
2 Ivory Coast 6 4 0 2 12:3 12
3 Sierra Leone 6 1 2 3 5:10 5
4 Chad 6 0 3 3 1:8 3
Promotion - Africa Cup of Nations 2025 (Main)

League Standings (Group 8)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 D.R. Congo 6 4 0 2 7:3 12
2 Tanzania 6 3 1 2 5:4 10
3 Guinea 6 3 0 3 9:5 9
4 Ethiopia 6 1 1 4 3:12 4
Promotion - Africa Cup of Nations 2025 (Main)

League Standings (Group 9)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Mali 6 4 2 0 10:1 14
2 Mozambique 6 3 2 1 9:5 11
3 Guinea Bissau 6 1 2 3 4:6 5
4 Eswatini 6 0 2 4 2:13 2
Promotion - Africa Cup of Nations 2025 (Main)

League Standings (Group 10)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Cameroon 6 4 2 0 8:2 14
2 Zimbabwe 6 2 3 1 6:4 9
3 Kenya 6 1 3 2 4:7 6
4 Namibia 6 0 2 4 2:7 2
Promotion - Africa Cup of Nations 2025 (Main)

League Standings (Group 11)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 South Africa 6 4 2 0 16:5 14
2 Uganda 6 4 1 1 8:5 13
3 Congo 6 1 1 4 4:12 4
4 South Sudan 6 1 0 5 6:12 3
Promotion - Africa Cup of Nations 2025 (Main)

League Standings (Group 12)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Senegal 6 5 1 0 10:1 16
2 Burkina Faso 6 3 1 2 10:7 10
3 Burundi 6 1 1 4 4:11 4
4 Malawi 6 1 1 4 6:11 4
Promotion - Africa Cup of Nations 2025 (Main)