Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Gaviao vs Parauapebas - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Brazil Brazil

Paraense A3
Sat, Oct 17, 2026
VS
08:00 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

The first leg ended 2-2. The second leg of this knockout tie follows. This one's hard to separate. Parauapebas have shipped 1.41 goals a game lately, while Gaviao have conceded 1.59 and scored 1.09. Head-to-head, Gaviao have won 1 to Parauapebas's 0, with 1 draws. They last met on Sep 16, 2026, ending 2:2. Model xG sits at 0.76 vs 1.13, favoring Gaviao. The prediction model leans Draw; both defenses could hold firm.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

34%
Gaviao
35%
Draws
31%
Parauapebas
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

35% / Low Confidence
  • Gaviao have won more games recently than Parauapebas.
  • Gaviao are the model's pick here, at 42%.
  • Gaviao have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 72.2%
Gaviao Clean Sheet 20%
Parauapebas Clean Sheet 19%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Gaviao Parauapebas
Matches Played 22 27
Wins 6 5
Draws 7 10
Losses 9 12
Goals Scored 1.09 0.81
Goals Conceded 1.59 1.41
Expected Goals (xG) 0.76 1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 16, 2026 Paraense A3
Gaviao vs Parauapebas
2:2
Sep 5, 2026 Paraense A3
Parauapebas vs Gaviao
0:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Gaviao 42 / 100
Parauapebas 38 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Gaviao Parauapebas

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Gaviao scored in 77% of their last 22 games.

Defensive concern: Parauapebas conceded in 78% of 27 recent games.

H2H data points to 2.50 goals as a typical output.

Solid form: Gaviao remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Gaviao VS Parauapebas
0.88 Goals Scored 0.88
1.38 Goals Conceded 0.63
63% Over 1.5 50%
50% Over 2.5 25%
25% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Gaviao

(Home)
02 Oct
Gaviao
2 : 0
Belenense
28 Sept
Belenense
1 : 0
Gaviao
20 Sept
Altamira
0 : 1
Gaviao
16 Sept
Gaviao
2 : 2
Parauapebas
11 Sept
Gaviao
2 : 0
Altamira
Page 1 of 5

Parauapebas

(Away)
03 Oct
Sport Belem
1 : 1
Parauapebas
27 Sept
Parauapebas
2 : 0
Sport Belem
23 Sept
Parauapebas
0 : 0
Altamira
16 Sept
Gaviao
2 : 2
Parauapebas
13 Sept
Altamira
1 : 2
Parauapebas
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Quarter-finals
Tesla 5
Pedreira 3
Venus 2
Pinheirense 3
Parauapebas 3
Sport Belem 1
Belenense 1
Gaviao 2
Semi-finals
Tesla -
Pinheirense -
Parauapebas -
Gaviao -
Final
TBD -
TBD -