Sport Picks

Mexico

Liga Premier Serie A

Zacatepec

Our Tip

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Heatmaps Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Gavilanes de Matamoros play Zacatepec in the Liga Premier Serie A. It looks like a close match. Recently, Gavilanes de Matamoros averaged 1.23 goals scored and 0.97 conceded. Zacatepec averaged 1.24 goals scored and 0.73 conceded. In past meetings, Gavilanes de Matamoros won 2, Zacatepec won 0, and they drew 2. Their last match on Apr 12, 2026 ended 1:0. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.06 for Gavilanes de Matamoros and 1.31 for Zacatepec. This points to a Gavilanes de Matamoros double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

33%

Gavilanes de Matamoros

35%

Draws

32%

Zacatepec

Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Gavilanes de Matamoros

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

69% / Medium Confidence

Gavilanes de Matamoros picked up more points recently compared to Zacatepec.
Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.06 vs 1.31 xG).
Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%

Over 1.5 Goals 54%

Over 2.5 Goals 28%

Over 3.5 Goals 17%

Over 4.5 Goals 8%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 37%

Gavilanes de Matamoros Clean Sheet 18%

Zacatepec Clean Sheet 14%

First Half Goal 49%

Second Half Goal 51%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Gavilanes de Matamoros	Zacatepec
Matches Played	30	33
Wins	13	14
Draws	6	12
Losses	11	7
Goals Scored	1.23	1.24
Goals Conceded	0.97	0.73
Expected Goals (xG)	1.38	1.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	0.88	0.75

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 12, 2026 Liga Premier Serie A

Gavilanes de Matamoros vs Zacatepec

Possession: 59% - 47% Cards: 1 - 4

1:0

Nov 22, 2025 Liga Premier Serie A

Zacatepec vs Gavilanes de Matamoros

Possession: 59% - 44% Cards: 0 - 3

0:0

Mar 11, 2025 Liga Premier Serie A

Gavilanes de Matamoros vs Zacatepec

Possession: 41% - 50% Cards: 3 - 3

4:0

Oct 28, 2024 Liga Premier Serie A

Zacatepec vs Gavilanes de Matamoros

Possession: 44% - 58% Cards: 2 - 3

1:1

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Gavilanes de Matamoros 33 / 100

Zacatepec 32 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Gavilanes de Matamoros Zacatepec

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Gavilanes de Matamoros or Draw (1X)

Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals

First Half Result Home Win (HT)

BTTS Outcome No (NG)

Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win

Value Edge +32%

4.00

Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals

Value Edge +27.4%

4.55

*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Gavilanes de Matamoros attacking → ← attacking Zacatepec

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Gavilanes de Matamoros scored in 67% of their last 30 games.

Zacatepec let in goals in 58% of their last 33 matches.

Games between these two average 1.75 goals.

Gavilanes de Matamoros went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Zacatepec lost 1 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

45 Points in last 5 54

1.38 Goals expected (xG) 1.75

0.88 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 0.75

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Alacranes de Durango	26	21	2	3	71:16	74
2	Tigres de Alica	26	17	3	6	46:25	56
3	Cimarrones de Sonora	26	15	7	4	46:19	54
4	Leones Negros 2	26	16	2	8	42:26	53
5	Tecos	26	14	4	8	49:34	49
6	Tritones Vallarta	26	15	1	10	32:27	46
7	Mineros de Fresnillo	26	11	4	11	40:41	39
8	Los Cabos United	26	11	3	12	37:40	37
9	Guerreros de Autlan	26	8	5	13	38:42	32
10	UA Zacatecas	26	8	4	14	32:49	29
11	Ensenada FC	26	8	2	16	30:55	28
12	Reboceros de La Piedad	26	7	1	18	39:66	23
13	Zapotlanejo	26	6	1	19	39:73	21
14	Colima FC	26	4	3	19	24:52	17

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Apodaca	26	21	2	3	47:19	66
2	FC Santiago	26	14	7	5	43:21	51
3	Zacatepec	26	12	8	6	29:15	45
4	Halcones de Zapopan	26	11	6	9	44:27	44
5	Calor De San Pedro	26	12	7	7	37:26	44
6	Gavilanes de Matamoros	26	12	5	9	31:22	44
7	Lobos ULMX	26	11	6	9	33:28	40
8	Correcaminos 2	26	9	7	10	27:25	36
9	Chilpancingo	26	9	8	9	33:41	35
10	Cordobes FC	26	8	6	12	29:30	30
11	Zitacuaro	26	6	10	10	22:31	28
12	CS Canamy	26	5	8	13	33:53	26
13	Ciervos	26	4	4	18	20:50	18
14	Atletico Hidalgo	26	4	4	18	22:62	16

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Racing de Veracruz	24	21	3	0	55:9	71
2	Deportiva Venados	24	15	4	5	61:25	52
3	Tapachula	24	13	0	11	51:35	44
4	Celaya	24	12	4	8	42:32	43
5	Inter Playa Del Carmen	24	13	4	7	35:28	42
6	Montaneses	24	12	2	10	35:28	38
7	Pioneros	24	10	3	11	35:35	35
8	Jaguares De Chiapas	24	9	4	11	33:32	34
9	Heroes de Zaci	24	10	2	12	33:46	34
10	Chapulineros	24	5	8	11	21:33	23
11	Canoneros FC	24	7	1	16	25:49	22
12	Neza FC	24	5	2	17	25:73	19
13	Dragones Toluca	24	4	3	17	21:47	17