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GD Alcochetense vs Alverca B

Portugal Portugal

Campeonato de Portugal - Group D 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

10' Event
Morais F.
30' Event
Joca
(Penalty)
40' Event
Aqueu D.

AI Match Summary

The Campeonato de Portugal - Group D 2025/2026 game between GD Alcochetense and Alverca B finished 1-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Alverca B.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

52%
GD Alcochetense
20%
Draws
28%
Alverca B
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: GD Alcochetense

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

52% / Medium Confidence
  • Alverca B carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Win probability leans GD Alcochetense's way, sitting at 50%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 35.2%
GD Alcochetense Clean Sheet 68%
Alverca B Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric GD Alcochetense Alverca B
Matches Played 32 30
Wins 13 15
Draws 10 5
Losses 9 10
Goals Scored 1.56 1.83
Goals Conceded 0.94 1.2
Expected Goals (xG) 1.50 1.44
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 4, 2026 Campeonato de Portugal - Group D
Alverca B vs GD Alcochetense
0:1
Dec 7, 2025 Campeonato de Portugal - Group D
GD Alcochetense vs Alverca B
1:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

GD Alcochetense Compare

Avg xG / game 1.15
Avg xA / game 0.75

Alverca B Compare

Top Goalscorer Morais F.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Aqueu D.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.31
Avg xA / game 0.8

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

GD Alcochetense 59 / 100
Alverca B 22 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
GD Alcochetense Alverca B

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick GD Alcochetense Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

GD Alcochetense found the back of the net in 84% of recent matches (32 games).

Alverca B let in goals in 83% of their last 30 matches.

Solid form: GD Alcochetense remains unbeaten in 5 of 5 recent matches.

H2H data points to 2.00 goals as a typical output.

Scoring Trends

GD Alcochetense VS Alverca B
2.25 Goals Scored 1.88
1 Goals Conceded 0.75
75% Over 1.5 63%
50% Over 2.5 63%
38% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

GD Alcochetense

(Home)
27 Sept
Aljustrelense
0 : 2
GD Alcochetense
20 Sept
GD Alcochetense
2 : 0
C.F. Benfica
13 Sept
GD Alcochetense
1 : 1
Imortal
06 Sept
GD Alcochetense
8 : 0
Fayal
23 Aug
GD Alcochetense
2 : 2
Portel
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Alverca B

(Away)
27 Sept
Alverca B
5 : 0
Fazendense
13 Sept
Naval 1893
1 : 0
Alverca B
06 Sept
Alverca B
0 : 1
SB Castelo Branco
23 Aug
Uniao Da Serra
2 : 1
Alverca B
18 Apr
Alverca B
5 : 0
Industria
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Louletano 26 14 8 4 36:15 50
2 Malveira 26 13 8 5 38:23 47
3 Alverca B 26 14 5 7 49:32 47
4 Juv. Evora 26 12 10 4 36:23 46
5 GD Alcochetense 26 11 8 7 33:22 41
6 Sintrense 26 11 7 8 30:25 40
7 Lagoa 26 11 6 9 44:34 39
8 O Elvas CAD 26 9 7 10 33:29 34
9 Serpa 26 9 7 10 28:34 34
10 Oriental 26 7 11 8 29:35 32
11 Moncarapachense 26 7 10 9 21:21 31
12 Portimonense B 26 6 4 16 19:42 22
13 Industria 26 2 8 16 20:45 14
14 Vasco da Gama Vidigueira 26 1 11 14 20:56 14
Promotion - Campeonato de Portugal - Group A 2025/2026 (Promotion Group)