Sport Picks

Portugal

Campeonato de Portugal - Group C 2023/2024

Vitoria Sernache

Our Tip

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Heatmaps Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

GD Fontinhas play Vitoria Sernache in the Campeonato de Portugal - Group C 2023/2024. It looks like a close match. Recently, GD Fontinhas averaged 1 goals scored and 1.33 conceded. Vitoria Sernache averaged 1.17 goals scored and 0.61 conceded. In past meetings, GD Fontinhas won 2, Vitoria Sernache won 2, and they drew 1. Their last match on Jan 28, 2024 ended 2:0. Our numbers estimate xG of 0.85 for GD Fontinhas and 0.99 for Vitoria Sernache. This points to a Vitoria Sernache double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

33%

GD Fontinhas

24%

Draws

43%

Vitoria Sernache

Draw rate projection: 24% Favored: Vitoria Sernache

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

73% / Medium Confidence

GD Fontinhas picked up more points recently compared to Vitoria Sernache.
Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (0.85 vs 0.99 xG).
Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%

Over 1.5 Goals 58%

Over 2.5 Goals 32%

Over 3.5 Goals 19%

Over 4.5 Goals 10%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 34%

GD Fontinhas Clean Sheet 23%

Vitoria Sernache Clean Sheet 17%

First Half Goal 52%

Second Half Goal 55%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	GD Fontinhas	Vitoria Sernache
Matches Played	30	36
Wins	12	18
Draws	5	12
Losses	13	6
Goals Scored	1	1.17
Goals Conceded	1.33	0.61

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 28, 2024 Campeonato de Portugal - Group C

GD Fontinhas vs Vitoria Sernache

Possession: 52% - 44% Cards: 1 - 4

2:0

Sep 17, 2023 Campeonato de Portugal - Group C

Vitoria Sernache vs GD Fontinhas

Possession: 46% - 56% Cards: 1 - 2

4:1

Jan 16, 2022 Campeonato de Portugal - Group D

GD Fontinhas vs Vitoria Sernache

Possession: 45% - 52% Cards: 3 - 1

2:2

Oct 3, 2021 Campeonato de Portugal - Group D

Vitoria Sernache vs GD Fontinhas

Possession: 48% - 55% Cards: 3 - 3

0:1

Mar 1, 2020 Campeonato de Portugal - Group C

GD Fontinhas vs Vitoria Sernache

Possession: 54% - 55% Cards: 1 - 4

0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

GD Fontinhas Compare

Top Goalscorer Pinto L.

1 Goals

Assists Leader Djabi Sauane I.

1 Ast

Avg xG / game 0

Avg xA / game 0

Vitoria Sernache Compare

Avg xG / game 0.8

Avg xA / game 0.49

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

GD Fontinhas 34 / 100

Vitoria Sernache 42 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

GD Fontinhas Vitoria Sernache

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Vitoria Sernache or Draw (X2)

Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals

First Half Result Draw (HT)

BTTS Outcome No (NG)

Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win

Value Edge +32%

4.00

Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals

Value Edge +23.2%

3.85

*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

GD Fontinhas attacking → ← attacking Vitoria Sernache

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

GD Fontinhas scored in 60% of their last 30 games.

Vitoria Sernache let in goals in 44% of their last 36 matches.

Games between these two average 2.60 goals.

GD Fontinhas went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Vitoria Sernache lost 1 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

41 Points in last 5 66

0.00 Goals expected (xG) 0.88

0.00 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 0.50

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Santarem	26	17	4	5	52:23	55
2	SC Lusitania	26	15	6	5	40:22	51
3	Marinhense	26	15	5	6	43:26	50
4	Alverca B	26	11	6	9	34:19	39
5	Uniao de Coimbra	26	11	5	10	30:26	38
6	SB Castelo Branco	26	10	7	9	34:29	37
7	GD Peniche	26	11	4	11	28:39	37
8	Sertanense	26	10	7	9	26:25	37
9	Mortagua FC	26	10	7	9	30:36	37
10	GD Fontinhas	26	9	5	12	23:32	32
11	CD Rabo Peixe	26	8	6	12	30:34	28
12	Vitoria Sernache	26	5	10	11	17:30	25
13	CD Gouveia	26	5	6	15	35:48	21
14	Tomar	26	5	2	19	20:53	17