Sport Picks

Portugal

Campeonato de Portugal - Group C 2024/2025

Arronches Benfica

Our Tip

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Heatmaps Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

GD Peniche play Arronches Benfica in the Campeonato de Portugal - Group C 2024/2025. It looks like a close match. Recently, GD Peniche averaged 1.53 goals scored and 1.59 conceded. Arronches Benfica averaged 1.1 goals scored and 0.7 conceded. In past meetings, GD Peniche won 0, Arronches Benfica won 2, and they drew 0. Their last match on Feb 16, 2025 ended 1:2. Our numbers estimate xG of 0.97 for GD Peniche and 1.31 for Arronches Benfica. This points to a Arronches Benfica double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

27%

GD Peniche

25%

Draws

48%

Arronches Benfica

Draw rate projection: 25% Favored: Arronches Benfica

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

79% / High Confidence

GD Peniche picked up more points recently compared to Arronches Benfica.
Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (0.97 vs 1.31 xG).
Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%

Over 1.5 Goals 64%

Over 2.5 Goals 39%

Over 3.5 Goals 23%

Over 4.5 Goals 12%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 41%

GD Peniche Clean Sheet 18%

Arronches Benfica Clean Sheet 15%

First Half Goal 58%

Second Half Goal 61%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	GD Peniche	Arronches Benfica
Matches Played	34	30
Wins	11	15
Draws	7	9
Losses	16	6
Goals Scored	1.53	1.1
Goals Conceded	1.59	0.7

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 16, 2025 Campeonato de Portugal - Group C

GD Peniche vs Arronches Benfica

Possession: 42% - 52% Cards: 2 - 1

1:2

Oct 6, 2024 Campeonato de Portugal - Group C

Arronches Benfica vs GD Peniche

Possession: 47% - 45% Cards: 3 - 3

1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

GD Peniche Compare

Top Goalscorer Diop A.

1 Goals

Avg xG / game 0.58

Avg xA / game 0.38

Arronches Benfica Compare

Top Goalscorer Okwara C.

1 Goals

Assists Leader Tirso Santos R. S.

1 Ast

Avg xG / game 0

Avg xA / game 0

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

GD Peniche 28 / 100

Arronches Benfica 46 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

GD Peniche Arronches Benfica

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Arronches Benfica or Draw (X2)

Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals

First Half Result Draw (HT)

BTTS Outcome No (NG)

Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win

Value Edge +42%

5.26

Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals

Value Edge +18.2%

3.03

*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

GD Peniche attacking → ← attacking Arronches Benfica

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

GD Peniche scored in 68% of their last 34 games.

Arronches Benfica let in goals in 50% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 2.00 goals.

GD Peniche went unbeaten in 1 of their last 5 games.

Arronches Benfica lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

40 Points in last 5 54

0.75 Goals expected (xG) 0.00

1.63 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 0.00

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	O Elvas CAD	26	20	5	1	41:10	65
2	Fatima	26	14	7	5	30:12	49
3	Arronches Benfica	26	13	9	4	27:17	48
4	GD Peniche	26	10	9	7	31:23	39
5	Os Marialvas	26	9	10	7	30:28	37
6	Mortagua FC	26	8	13	5	23:21	37
7	Marinhense	26	9	9	8	24:21	36
8	Alverca B	26	9	8	9	28:25	35
9	SB Castelo Branco	26	8	10	8	23:21	34
10	SC Pombal	26	8	8	10	29:34	32
11	Uniao de Coimbra	26	6	7	13	26:44	25
12	Sertanense	26	4	9	13	23:33	21
13	Alcains	26	4	6	16	17:36	18
14	Pero Pinheiro	26	2	6	18	12:39	12