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GD Peniche vs Vitoria Sernache

Portugal Portugal

Campeonato de Portugal - Group C 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

90' Event
dos Santos B.
(Penalty)

AI Match Summary

Vitoria Sernache in this Campeonato de Portugal - Group C 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 0-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Vitoria Sernache.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

28%
GD Peniche
15%
Draws
57%
Vitoria Sernache
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Vitoria Sernache

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

57% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Vitoria Sernache lately — more wins on the board than GD Peniche.
  • Model gives Vitoria Sernache a 57% chance of winning this.
  • Regular Campeonato de Portugal - Group C 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 81.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 27.6%
GD Peniche Clean Sheet 14%
Vitoria Sernache Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric GD Peniche Vitoria Sernache
Matches Played 30 32
Wins 9 14
Draws 7 10
Losses 14 8
Goals Scored 1.57 1
Goals Conceded 1.7 0.88
Expected Goals (xG) 1.38 1.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 15, 2026 Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
GD Peniche vs Vitoria Sernache
0:1
Nov 9, 2025 Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
Vitoria Sernache vs GD Peniche
0:1
Mar 17, 2024 Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
GD Peniche vs Vitoria Sernache
2:0
Dec 3, 2023 Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
Vitoria Sernache vs GD Peniche
0:1
May 1, 2022 Campeonato de Portugal - Group A
GD Peniche vs Vitoria Sernache
0:3

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

GD Peniche 27 / 100
Vitoria Sernache 50 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
GD Peniche Vitoria Sernache

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Vitoria Sernache Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

GD Peniche found the back of the net in 67% of recent matches (30 games).

These sides typically produce 1.60 goals when they meet.

Vitoria Sernache's recent record shows 3 losses from the last 5 matches.

Vitoria Sernache let in goals in 50% of their last 32 matches.

Scoring Trends

GD Peniche VS Vitoria Sernache
2 Goals Scored 1.25
2 Goals Conceded 0.75
100% Over 1.5 63%
67% Over 2.5 50%
67% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

GD Peniche

(Home)
18 Apr
GD Peniche
5 : 1
SC Lusitania
12 Apr
Uniao Da Serra
3 : 1
GD Peniche
04 Apr
GD Peniche
0 : 2
SB Castelo Branco
29 Mar
Samora Correia
5 : 2
GD Peniche
22 Mar
Electrico FC
4 : 2
GD Peniche
Page 1 of 6

Vitoria Sernache

(Away)
19 Sept
Vitoria Sernache
2 : 1
Varzim
13 Sept
Caldas SC
2 : 0
Vitoria Sernache
06 Sept
Vitoria Sernache
1 : 3
CF Os Belenenses
30 Aug
GD Os Nazarenos
0 : 3
Vitoria Sernache
23 Aug
Oliveirense
3 : 2
Vitoria Sernache
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Vitoria Sernache 26 16 7 3 33:12 55
2 Oliveira Hospital 26 14 8 4 39:13 50
3 Naval 1893 26 14 6 6 36:23 48
4 SB Castelo Branco 26 14 4 8 43:26 46
5 Uniao Da Serra 26 12 8 6 38:27 44
6 Mortagua FC 26 11 6 9 23:26 39
7 Os Marialvas 26 10 6 10 33:28 36
8 Fatima 26 8 8 10 27:29 32
9 Lajense 26 8 8 10 37:37 32
10 GD Peniche 26 8 6 12 34:43 30
11 Samora Correia 26 8 5 13 27:35 29
12 Marinhense 26 5 9 12 20:38 24
13 Electrico FC 26 5 4 17 33:62 19
14 SC Lusitania 26 4 5 17 24:48 17
Promotion - Campeonato de Portugal - Group A 2025/2026 (Promotion Group)