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Gefle vs Umea FC - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Sweden Sweden

Division 1 - Norra Gavlevallen, Gävle
Our Tip

Match Events

20'
Olawore E.
32' Event
Vikgren L.
Assist: Kouyate M.
59'
Essombe Mambingo J.

AI Match Summary

Gefle in this Division 1 - Norra matchup, with the score ending 2-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Gefle.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

34%
Gefle
15%
Draws
51%
Umea FC
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Umea FC

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

15% / Low Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Umea FC lately — more wins on the board than Gefle.
  • 36% — that's where the model lands on Gefle taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 70.2%
Gefle Clean Sheet 20%
Umea FC Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Gefle Umea FC
Matches Played 28 29
Wins 10 11
Draws 3 5
Losses 15 13
Goals Scored 1.14 1.28
Goals Conceded 1.68 1.52
Expected Goals (xG) 1.38 1.19
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 15, 2026 Division 1 - Norra
Gefle vs Umea FC
2:0
May 9, 2026 Division 1 - Norra
Umea FC vs Gefle
2:2
Oct 22, 2022 Division 1 - Norra
Gefle vs Umea FC
1:0
Apr 23, 2022 Division 1 - Norra
Umea FC vs Gefle
0:1
Oct 16, 2021 Division 1 - Norra
Umea FC vs Gefle
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Gefle Compare

Top Goalscorer Vikgren L.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Sipic A.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.06
Avg xA / game 0.69

Umea FC Compare

Avg xG / game 1.08
Avg xA / game 0.66

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Gefle 36 / 100
Umea FC 33 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Gefle Umea FC

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Umea FC's defensive record shows goals conceded in 79% of 29 matches.

These sides typically produce 2.20 goals when they meet.

Attacking prowess: Gefle scored in 54% of their last 28 outings.

Gefle went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Gefle VS Umea FC
1.25 Goals Scored 1.38
1 Goals Conceded 1.5
63% Over 1.5 88%
38% Over 2.5 63%
25% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Gefle

(Home)
03 Oct
Enkopings SK
1 : 0
Gefle
27 Sept
Gefle
0 : 1
Vasalund
20 Sept
AFC Eskilstuna
0 : 1
Gefle
16 Sept
Gefle
0 : 2
FC Arlanda
12 Sept
Gefle
3 : 1
FC Jarfalla
Page 1 of 6

Umea FC

(Away)
04 Oct
Umea FC
2 : 1
Hammarby TFF
27 Sept
Umea FC
1 : 3
FBK Karlstad
20 Sept
IFK Stocksund
0 : 3
Umea FC
16 Sept
Pitea
0 : 2
Umea FC
13 Sept
Umea FC
0 : 4
FC Stockholm Internazionale
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 FC Stockholm Internazionale 25 18 3 4 60:20 57
2 FC Arlanda 25 14 6 5 46:28 48
3 AFC Eskilstuna 25 14 5 6 47:34 47
4 Hammarby TFF 25 13 6 6 51:25 45
5 FBK Karlstad 25 12 7 6 41:35 43
6 Enkopings SK 25 13 3 9 38:40 42
7 Karlstad 25 11 8 6 37:25 41
8 Assyriska FF 25 9 5 11 43:45 32
9 Umea FC 25 9 5 11 34:41 32
10 Karlbergs 25 9 5 11 33:41 32
11 Gefle 25 9 3 13 29:43 30
12 Vasalund 25 7 6 12 36:52 27
13 Sollentuna 25 5 9 11 24:36 24
14 Pitea 25 5 7 13 30:46 22
15 FC Jarfalla 25 5 4 16 33:55 19
16 IFK Stocksund 25 3 6 16 45:61 15
Promotion - Superettan 2027 (Main)
Promotion - Division 1 - Norra (Promotion)
Relegation - Division 1 - Norra (Relegation - Play Offs)