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GEL vs Estrela do Norte

Brazil Brazil

Capixaba 2 2025
GEL Logo

GEL

0 - 5
FT
Estrela do Norte Logo

Estrela do Norte

Our Tip
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Estrela do Norte in this Capixaba 2 2025 matchup, with the score ending 0-5 — backing the pre-match view that favored Estrela do Norte.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

27%
GEL
30%
Draws
43%
Estrela do Norte
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Estrela do Norte

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

43% / Low Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Estrela do Norte lately — more wins on the board than GEL.
  • 43% — that's where the model lands on Estrela do Norte taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 37.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 64.6%
GEL Clean Sheet 10%
Estrela do Norte Clean Sheet 18%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric GEL Estrela do Norte
Matches Played 29 28
Wins 4 11
Draws 7 5
Losses 18 12
Goals Scored 0.79 1.21
Goals Conceded 2.69 0.89
Expected Goals (xG) 0.81 2.06
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 20, 2025 Capixaba 2
GEL vs Estrela do Norte
0:5

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

GEL 26 / 100
Estrela do Norte 40 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
GEL Estrela do Norte

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Estrela do Norte Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Games between these two average 5.00 goals.

Estrela do Norte's defensive record shows goals conceded in 64% of 28 matches.

Recent resilience: GEL stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

GEL scored in 41% of their last 29 games.

Scoring Trends

GEL VS Estrela do Norte
1.13 Goals Scored 1.88
2.25 Goals Conceded 0.5
75% Over 1.5 50%
63% Over 2.5 38%
50% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

GEL

(Home)
18 Aug
Doze Futebol Clube
1 : 2
GEL
14 Aug
GEL
6 : 0
CTE Colatina
01 Aug
Audax Sao Mateus
0 : 0
GEL
28 Jul
GEL
0 : 4
Linhares Futebol Clube
23 Jul
GEL
0 : 0
Doze Futebol Clube
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Estrela do Norte

(Away)
08 Aug
Estrela do Norte
1 : 1
Rive
02 Aug
Estrela do Norte
2 : 0
Sport-ES
25 Jul
Tupy
0 : 1
Estrela do Norte
22 Jul
Estrela do Norte
5 : 0
Pinheiros
12 Jul
Rive
0 : 2
Estrela do Norte
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Serra 7 6 0 1 24:4 18
2 Estrela do Norte 7 5 0 2 14:4 15
3 Forte 7 3 2 2 13:4 11
4 Linhares Futebol Clube 7 3 2 2 14:8 11
5 Pinheiros 7 2 2 3 8:14 8
6 Galatas 7 2 1 4 9:13 7
7 Sport-ES 7 2 1 4 8:16 7
8 GEL 7 0 2 5 3:30 2
Promotion - Capixaba 2 2025 (Play Offs)