Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Gelbison vs Igea Virtus

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group I 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

73' Event
Calafiore C.
75' Event
Cascio F.

AI Match Summary

Neither side could be separated in this Serie D - Group I 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 1-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

23%
Gelbison
30%
Draws
47%
Igea Virtus
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Igea Virtus

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

47% / Medium Confidence
  • Gelbison have won more games recently than Igea Virtus.
  • 47% — that's where the model lands on Igea Virtus taking it.
  • Regular Serie D - Group I 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30.8%
Gelbison Clean Sheet 16%
Igea Virtus Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Gelbison Igea Virtus
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 15 13
Draws 6 11
Losses 8 5
Goals Scored 1.28 1.45
Goals Conceded 1 1.1
Expected Goals (xG) 1.50 1.44
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 22, 2026 Serie D - Group I
Gelbison vs Igea Virtus
1:1
Nov 9, 2025 Serie D - Group I
Igea Virtus vs Gelbison
1:1
Mar 18, 2018 Serie D - Group I
Gelbison vs Igea Virtus
0:1
Nov 1, 2017 Serie D - Group I
Igea Virtus vs Gelbison
3:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Gelbison Compare

Top Goalscorer Cascio F.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.15
Avg xA / game 0.75

Igea Virtus Compare

Top Goalscorer Calafiore C.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.31
Avg xA / game 0.8

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Gelbison 19 / 100
Igea Virtus 68 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Gelbison Igea Virtus

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Igea Virtus Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Gelbison found the back of the net in 76% of recent matches (29 games).

Defensive concern: Igea Virtus conceded in 62% of 29 recent games.

Games between these two average 2.00 goals.

Solid form: Gelbison remains unbeaten in 2 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Gelbison VS Igea Virtus
0.88 Goals Scored 1.75
1.13 Goals Conceded 2.13
50% Over 1.5 88%
50% Over 2.5 75%
13% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Gelbison

(Home)
16 Sept
Gelbison
2 : 1
Budoni Calcio
13 Sept
Trastevere Calcio
2 : 1
Gelbison
06 Sept
Gelbison
0 : 0
Afragolese
11 Aug
Nocerina
3 : 0
Gelbison
10 May
Nissa
4 : 0
Gelbison
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Igea Virtus

(Away)
16 Sept
Igea Virtus
4 : 3
Vibonese
12 Sept
Lamezia
2 : 2
Igea Virtus
06 Sept
Igea Virtus
4 : 2
Calcio Avola
03 May
Lamezia
4 : 1
Igea Virtus
26 Apr
Igea Virtus
1 : 1
ACR Messina
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 A.C. Savoia 34 20 9 5 63:29 69
2 Nissa 34 19 10 5 51:27 67
3 Reggina 34 20 6 8 44:23 66
4 Athletic Palermo 34 18 6 10 59:47 60
5 Gelbison 34 17 9 8 44:32 60
6 Sambiase 34 14 11 9 38:30 53
7 Igea Virtus 34 15 13 6 49:36 53
8 Milazzo 34 12 8 14 31:36 44
9 Gela 34 13 5 16 41:44 43
10 Lamezia 34 11 9 14 43:35 42
11 Castrumfavara 34 10 8 16 38:47 38
12 Enna 34 8 12 14 50:53 36
13 Vibonese 34 8 11 15 32:47 35
14 USD Ragusa 34 7 13 14 23:34 34
15 ACR Messina 34 11 13 10 28:33 32
16 AS Acireale 34 7 12 15 37:50 32
17 Sancataldese 34 7 8 19 31:49 29
18 Paterno 34 4 7 23 22:72 19
Promotion - Serie D - Group I 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie D - Group I 2025/2026 (Play Out)