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Genesis FC vs Motagua

Honduras Honduras

Liga Nacional 2025/2026 Estadio Roberto Suazo Cordova, La Paz
Our Tip

Match Events

31' Event
Gomez R.
31'
Paz J.
37'
Nunez D.

AI Match Summary

Neither side could be separated in this Liga Nacional 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 1-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

42%
Genesis FC
20%
Draws
38%
Motagua
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Genesis FC

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

67% / Medium Confidence
  • Motagua have won more games recently than Genesis FC.
  • Model gives Genesis FC a 42% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • These two have met 5 times recently and Motagua have taken 4 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 75.4%
Genesis FC Clean Sheet 18%
Motagua Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Genesis FC Motagua
Matches Played 31 31
Wins 9 15
Draws 9 10
Losses 13 6
Goals Scored 1.38 1.63
Goals Conceded 1 1.25
Expected Goals (xG) 1.38 1.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.00 1.25

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 19, 2026 Liga Nacional
Motagua vs Genesis FC
2:1
May 4, 2026 Liga Nacional
Genesis FC vs Motagua
1:1
Apr 5, 2026 Liga Nacional
Motagua vs Genesis FC
3:1
Feb 11, 2026 Liga Nacional
Genesis FC vs Motagua
0:5
Oct 5, 2025 Liga Nacional
Motagua vs Genesis FC
4:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Genesis FC Compare

Top Goalscorer Gabriel A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.06
Avg xA / game 0.69

Motagua Compare

Top Goalscorer Gomez R.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.48
Avg xA / game 0.91

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Genesis FC 41 / 100
Motagua 36 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Genesis FC Motagua

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Games between these two average 4.20 goals.

Genesis FC found the back of the net in 71% of recent matches (31 games).

Motagua let in goals in 71% of their last 31 matches.

Genesis FC has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Genesis FC VS Motagua
1.38 Goals Scored 1.63
1 Goals Conceded 1.25
75% Over 1.5 75%
38% Over 2.5 63%
25% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Genesis FC

(Home)
19 May
Motagua
2 : 1
Genesis FC
15 May
Genesis FC
1 : 1
Olancho
07 May
Olancho
1 : 3
Genesis FC
04 May
Genesis FC
1 : 1
Motagua
01 May
Olancho
2 : 2
Genesis FC
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Motagua

(Away)
24 Jul
Olimpia
1 : 0
Motagua
24 May
Motagua
1 : 0
Marathon
22 May
Marathon
1 : 1
Motagua
19 May
Motagua
2 : 1
Genesis FC
13 May
Olancho
0 : 2
Motagua
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League Standings (Group 1)

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Marathon42113:37
2Olimpia42026:66
3Real Espana41126:64
Promotion - Liga Nacional 2025/2026 (Clausura - Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 2)

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Motagua42116:47
2Genesis FC41216:55
3Olancho41124:74
Promotion - Liga Nacional 2025/2026 (Clausura - Play Offs)