Sport Picks

Italy

Serie A 2025/2026 Stadio Luigi Ferraris

Genoa

2 - 1

Sassuolo

Our Tip

Match Events

Malinovskyi R.

18'

Malinovskyi R.

Assist: Baldanzi T.

20'

Frendrup M.

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

The Serie A 2025/2026 game between Genoa and Sassuolo finished 2-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Genoa.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

36%

Genoa

44%

Draws

20%

Sassuolo

Draw rate projection: 44% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

71% / Medium Confidence

Genoa have managed 0.63 goals a game lately — Sassuolo are scoring more at 1.13.
44% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
Genoa have won 4 of the last 5 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%

Over 1.5 Goals 75%

Over 2.5 Goals 25%

Over 3.5 Goals 0%

Over 4.5 Goals 0%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 35.2%

Genoa Clean Sheet 20%

Sassuolo Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Genoa	Sassuolo
Matches Played	30	29
Wins	10	10
Draws	8	6
Losses	12	13
Goals Scored	0.63	1.13
Goals Conceded	1.25	1
Expected Goals (xG)	0.63	1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	1.25	1.00

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 12, 2026 Serie A

Genoa vs Sassuolo

Possession: 53% - 51% Cards: 2 - 3

2:1

Nov 3, 2025 Serie A

Sassuolo vs Genoa

Possession: 41% - 48% Cards: 3 - 2

1:2

May 12, 2024 Serie A

Genoa vs Sassuolo

Possession: 45% - 57% Cards: 3 - 1

2:1

Dec 22, 2023 Serie A

Sassuolo vs Genoa

Possession: 56% - 50% Cards: 4 - 2

1:2

Jan 6, 2022 Serie A

Sassuolo vs Genoa

Possession: 45% - 44% Cards: 1 - 2

1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Genoa Compare

Top Goalscorer Malinovskyi R.

1 Goals

Assists Leader Ekuban C.

1 Ast

Avg xG / game 0.48

Avg xA / game 0.32

Sassuolo Compare

Top Goalscorer Kone I.

1 Goals

Avg xG / game 1.03

Avg xA / game 0.63

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Genoa 36 / 100

Sassuolo 32 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Genoa Sassuolo

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick SAS Win (2)

Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No

Correct Score 0:1

BTTS Outcome No (NG)

Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Sassuolo let in goals in 83% of their last 29 matches.

Genoa's goal record stands at 63% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

Games between these two average 2.80 goals.

Difficult form: Sassuolo registered 3 defeats in their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Genoa VS Sassuolo

0.63 Goals Scored 1.13

1.25 Goals Conceded 1

75% Over 1.5 75%

38% Over 2.5 50%

0% Over 3.5 0%

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Inter	38	27	6	5	89:35	87
2	Napoli	38	23	7	8	58:36	76
3	AS Roma	38	23	4	11	59:31	73
4	Como	38	20	11	7	65:29	71
5	AC Milan	38	20	10	8	53:35	70
6	Juventus	38	19	12	7	61:34	69
7	Atalanta	38	15	14	9	51:36	59
8	Bologna	38	16	8	14	49:46	56
9	Lazio	38	14	12	12	41:40	54
10	Udinese	38	14	8	16	45:48	50
11	Sassuolo	38	14	7	17	46:50	49
12	Torino	38	12	9	17	44:63	45
13	Parma	38	11	12	15	28:46	45
14	Cagliari	38	11	10	17	40:53	43
15	Fiorentina	38	9	15	14	41:50	42
16	Genoa	38	10	11	17	41:51	41
17	Lecce	38	10	8	20	28:50	38
18	Cremonese	38	8	10	20	32:57	34
19	Verona	38	3	12	23	25:61	21
20	Pisa	38	2	12	24	26:71	18