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Germany vs Serbia - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Europe Europe

UEFA Nations League Allianz Arena, Munich
Germany Logo

Germany

2 - 0
FT
Serbia Logo

Serbia

Our Tip

Match Events

39' Event
Bischof T.
46'
Sub
Gnabry S. In: El Mala S.
Out: Gnabry S.
61' Event
Wirtz F.
Assist: Mittelstadt M.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

The UEFA Nations League game between Germany and Serbia finished 2-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Germany.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

80%
Germany
20%
Draws
0%
Serbia
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Germany

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

80% / Very High Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Germany come out ahead of Serbia on wins alone.
  • Germany are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • European nights carry their own weight — this UEFA Nations League fixture won't be treated like a routine game.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 25.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 31.200000000000003%
Germany Clean Sheet 68%
Serbia Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Germany Serbia
Matches Played 30 29
Wins 18 8
Draws 5 7
Losses 7 14
Goals Scored 2.3 0.9
Goals Conceded 1.03 1.41
Expected Goals (xG) 2.63 0.94
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 1, 2026 UEFA Nations League
Germany vs Serbia
2:0
Mar 20, 2019 Friendly International
Germany vs Serbia
1:1
Jun 18, 2010 World Championship
Germany vs Serbia
0:1
May 31, 2008 Friendly International
Germany vs Serbia
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Germany Compare

Top Goalscorer Bischof T.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Wirtz F.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 2.02
Avg xA / game 1.31

Serbia Compare

Avg xG / game 0.85
Avg xA / game 0.52

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Germany 95 / 100
Serbia 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Germany Serbia

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Germany Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 3:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Germany's goal record stands at 87% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

Serbia lost 5 of their last 5 games.

Serbia let in goals in 69% of their last 29 matches.

Games between these two average 2.00 goals.

Scoring Trends

Germany VS Serbia
2.75 Goals Scored 0.75
1.13 Goals Conceded 2.5
88% Over 1.5 100%
88% Over 2.5 88%
38% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Germany

(Home)
04 Oct
Greece
0 : 0
Germany
01 Oct
Germany
2 : 0
Serbia
27 Sept
Germany
0 : 1
Greece
24 Sept
Netherlands
1 : 1
Germany
29 Jun
Germany
1 : 2
Paraguay
Page 1 of 6

Serbia

(Away)
04 Oct
Netherlands
2 : 1
Serbia
01 Oct
Germany
2 : 0
Serbia
27 Sept
Serbia
1 : 2
Netherlands
24 Sept
Serbia
1 : 2
Greece
05 Jun
Mexico
5 : 1
Serbia
Page 1 of 6

League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 France 4 3 1 0 7:2 10
2 Italy 4 2 1 1 8:5 7
3 Belgium 4 2 0 2 6:5 6
4 Turkey 4 0 0 4 2:11 0
Promotion - UEFA Nations League (League A - Play Offs)
Relegation - UEFA Nations League (Relegation - League A/B)
Relegation - UEFA Nations League 2028/2029 (League B)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Netherlands 4 2 2 0 7:5 8
2 Greece 4 2 2 0 5:3 8
3 Germany 4 1 2 1 3:2 5
4 Serbia 4 0 0 4 3:8 0
Promotion - UEFA Nations League (League A - Play Offs)
Relegation - UEFA Nations League (Relegation - League A/B)
Relegation - UEFA Nations League 2028/2029 (League B)

League Standings (Group 3)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Spain 4 4 0 0 12:5 12
2 England 4 3 0 1 14:3 9
3 Croatia 4 1 0 3 4:14 3
4 Czech Republic 4 0 0 4 2:10 0
Promotion - UEFA Nations League (League A - Play Offs)
Relegation - UEFA Nations League (Relegation - League A/B)
Relegation - UEFA Nations League 2028/2029 (League B)

League Standings (Group 4)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Portugal 4 4 0 0 9:4 12
2 Denmark 4 2 0 2 7:7 6
3 Wales 4 1 0 3 2:5 3
4 Norway 4 1 0 3 6:8 3
Promotion - UEFA Nations League (League A - Play Offs)
Relegation - UEFA Nations League (Relegation - League A/B)
Relegation - UEFA Nations League 2028/2029 (League B)