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Al Minaa vs Ghaz Al Shamal - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Iraq Iraq

Stars League
Sat, Oct 10, 2026
VS
03:00 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Al Minaa host Ghaz Al Shamal in the Stars League. Don't expect fireworks — both sides lean defensive. Al Minaa have averaged 1.1 scored and 1.27 conceded recently, against Ghaz Al Shamal's 0.5 scored and 0.63 conceded. These two haven't met recently, so form does most of the talking. xG projections (0.69 - 0.69) back Al Minaa to edge this. Under 2.5 looks the sharpest market angle here.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

16%
Al Minaa
35%
Draws
49%
Ghaz Al Shamal
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Ghaz Al Shamal

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

49% / Medium Confidence
  • Al Minaa carry the better recent record into this one.
  • 49% — that's where the model lands on Ghaz Al Shamal taking it.
  • Regular Stars League form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 50.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 22%
Over 3.5 Goals 0%
Over 4.5 Goals 0%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30%
Al Minaa Clean Sheet 28%
Ghaz Al Shamal Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Al Minaa Ghaz Al Shamal
Matches Played 30 8
Wins 8 1
Draws 10 5
Losses 12 2
Goals Scored 1.1 0.5
Goals Conceded 1.27 0.63
Expected Goals (xG) 0.69 0.69
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Al Minaa 25 / 100
Ghaz Al Shamal 59 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Al Minaa Ghaz Al Shamal

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Ghaz Al Shamal Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Al Minaa found the back of the net in 67% of recent matches (30 games).

Ghaz Al Shamal's defensive record shows goals conceded in 63% of 8 matches.

Al Minaa went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Ghaz Al Shamal's recent record shows 1 losses from the last 5 matches.

Scoring Trends

Al Minaa VS Ghaz Al Shamal
0.75 Goals Scored 0.5
0.88 Goals Conceded 0.63
63% Over 1.5 38%
38% Over 2.5 0%
0% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Al Minaa

(Home)
18 Sept
Al Minaa
1 : 1
Duhok
13 Sept
Al Kahraba
2 : 1
Al Minaa
09 Sept
Al Minaa
1 : 1
Naft Missan
05 Sept
Al Minaa
0 : 3
Al Naft
31 Aug
Erbil
2 : 0
Al Minaa
Page 1 of 6

Ghaz Al Shamal

(Away)
19 Sept
Ghaz Al Shamal
0 : 0
Newroz
12 Sept
Al Shorta
0 : 0
Ghaz Al Shamal
08 Sept
Duhok
1 : 1
Ghaz Al Shamal
04 Sept
Ghaz Al Shamal
0 : 1
Al Golan
30 Aug
Al Gharraf
0 : 1
Ghaz Al Shamal
Page 1 of 2

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Al Karma 8 6 2 0 14:5 20
2 Al Zawraa 8 5 3 0 15:3 18
3 Erbil 8 5 2 1 12:3 17
4 Newroz 8 4 3 1 13:4 15
5 Al Shorta 8 4 3 1 9:4 15
6 Al Naft 8 4 3 1 9:5 15
7 Al Quwa Al Jawiya 9 2 5 2 14:12 11
8 Al Golan 8 2 4 2 8:9 10
9 Duhok 8 1 6 1 11:11 9
10 Diyala 8 2 3 3 13:14 9
11 Al Minaa 8 2 3 3 8:10 9
12 Zakho 8 2 3 3 7:11 9
13 Ghaz Al Shamal 8 1 5 2 4:5 8
14 Al Mosul 9 2 2 5 9:15 8
15 Al Karkh 8 2 1 5 10:14 7
16 Al Kahraba 8 1 4 3 6:10 7
17 Al Talaba 8 1 4 3 9:14 7
18 Naft Missan 8 1 4 3 6:11 7
19 Al Gharraf 8 1 2 5 4:12 5
20 Karbala 8 1 2 5 6:15 5
Promotion - AFC Champions League 2027/2028 (League phase)
Relegation - Stars League (Relegation)