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Ghaz Al Shamal vs Naft Missan - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Iraq Iraq

Stars League
Sat, Oct 24, 2026
VS
07:00 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Ghaz Al Shamal host Naft Missan in the Stars League. Don't expect fireworks — both sides lean defensive. Ghaz Al Shamal have averaged 0.44 scored and 0.78 conceded recently, against Naft Missan's 1.18 scored and 1.25 conceded. These two haven't met recently, so form does most of the talking. Model xG sits at 1.00 vs 0.76, favoring Naft Missan. The model tips Over 2.5 goals in this one.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

24%
Ghaz Al Shamal
35%
Draws
41%
Naft Missan
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Naft Missan

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

35% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Naft Missan come out ahead of Ghaz Al Shamal on wins alone.
  • Model gives Ghaz Al Shamal a 36% chance of winning this.
  • Regular Stars League form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 70.6%
Ghaz Al Shamal Clean Sheet 20%
Naft Missan Clean Sheet 15%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Ghaz Al Shamal Naft Missan
Matches Played 9 28
Wins 1 8
Draws 5 11
Losses 3 9
Goals Scored 0.44 1.18
Goals Conceded 0.78 1.25
Expected Goals (xG) 1.00 0.76
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Ghaz Al Shamal 36 / 100
Naft Missan 34 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Ghaz Al Shamal Naft Missan

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: Naft Missan conceded in 75% of 28 recent games.

Solid form: Ghaz Al Shamal remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Ghaz Al Shamal scored in 44% of their last 9 games.

Away concern: Naft Missan has suffered 2 losses in 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Ghaz Al Shamal VS Naft Missan
0.5 Goals Scored 0.88
0.63 Goals Conceded 1.5
38% Over 1.5 88%
0% Over 2.5 25%
0% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Ghaz Al Shamal

(Home)
10 Oct
Al Minaa
2 : 0
Ghaz Al Shamal
19 Sept
Ghaz Al Shamal
0 : 0
Newroz
12 Sept
Al Shorta
0 : 0
Ghaz Al Shamal
08 Sept
Duhok
1 : 1
Ghaz Al Shamal
04 Sept
Ghaz Al Shamal
0 : 1
Al Golan
Page 1 of 2

Naft Missan

(Away)
16 Oct
Diyala
2 : 0
Naft Missan
08 Oct
Naft Missan
1 : 1
Erbil
17 Sept
Al Karkh
3 : 2
Naft Missan
13 Sept
Naft Missan
2 : 0
Al Talaba
09 Sept
Al Minaa
1 : 1
Naft Missan
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Al Karma 10 7 3 0 17:7 24
2 Newroz 10 6 3 1 16:4 21
3 Al Naft 10 6 3 1 13:5 21
4 Al Zawraa 9 5 3 1 15:6 18
5 Erbil 9 5 3 1 13:4 18
6 Al Shorta 9 4 4 1 9:4 16
7 Al Golan 10 3 5 2 10:9 14
8 Al Quwa Al Jawiya 10 2 6 2 14:12 12
9 Duhok 10 2 6 2 14:13 12
10 Diyala 10 3 3 4 15:16 12
11 Al Minaa 10 3 3 4 10:12 12
12 Al Talaba 10 2 5 3 10:14 11
13 Zakho 10 2 3 5 7:14 9
14 Al Gharraf 10 2 3 5 6:13 9
15 Ghaz Al Shamal 9 1 5 3 4:7 8
16 Al Kahraba 10 1 5 4 6:11 8
17 Al Mosul 9 2 2 5 9:15 8
18 Naft Missan 10 1 5 4 7:14 8
19 Al Karkh 9 2 1 6 12:17 7
20 Karbala 10 1 3 6 7:17 6
Promotion - AFC Champions League 2027/2028 (League phase)
Relegation - Stars League (Relegation)