Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Ghazl El Mahallah vs Al Ahly

Egypt Egypt

League Cup El-Gazel Stadium
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Ghazl El Mahallah play Al Ahly in the League Cup. It looks like a close match. Recently, Ghazl El Mahallah averaged 0.87 goals scored and 0.97 conceded. Al Ahly averaged 1.48 goals scored and 0.97 conceded. In past meetings, Ghazl El Mahallah won 1, Al Ahly won 3, and they drew 1. Their last match on Dec 23, 2025 ended 2:1. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.07 for Ghazl El Mahallah and 1.25 for Al Ahly. This points to a Al Ahly double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

28%
Ghazl El Mahallah
30%
Draws
42%
Al Ahly
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Al Ahly

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

75% / High Confidence
  • Ghazl El Mahallah picked up more points recently compared to Al Ahly.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.07 vs 1.25 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 62%
Over 2.5 Goals 38%
Over 3.5 Goals 23%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 45%
Ghazl El Mahallah Clean Sheet 19%
Al Ahly Clean Sheet 14%
First Half Goal 56%
Second Half Goal 59%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Ghazl El Mahallah Al Ahly
Matches Played 30 31
Wins 7 15
Draws 14 7
Losses 9 9
Goals Scored 0.87 1.48
Goals Conceded 0.97 0.97
Expected Goals (xG) 1.00 1.86
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.63 1.14

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Dec 23, 2025 League Cup
Ghazl El Mahallah vs Al Ahly
2:1
Aug 25, 2025 Premier League
Ghazl El Mahallah vs Al Ahly
0:0
Feb 11, 2025 Premier League
Al Ahly vs Ghazl El Mahallah
1:0
Apr 5, 2023 Premier League
Al Ahly vs Ghazl El Mahallah
3:0
Dec 7, 2022 Premier League
Ghazl El Mahallah vs Al Ahly
0:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Ghazl El Mahallah Compare

Top Goalscorer Arfaoui R.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Saidi K.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.77
Avg xA / game 0.5

Al Ahly Compare

Top Goalscorer Moawad O.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.69
Avg xA / game 1.03

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Ghazl El Mahallah 29 / 100
Al Ahly 41 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Ghazl El Mahallah Al Ahly

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Al Ahly or Draw (X2)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Draw (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +40%
5.00
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +18.9%
3.13
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Ghazl El Mahallah attacking → ← attacking Al Ahly

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Ghazl El Mahallah scored in 57% of their last 30 games.

Al Ahly let in goals in 65% of their last 31 matches.

Games between these two average 1.80 goals.

Ghazl El Mahallah went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Al Ahly lost 1 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

35 Points in last 5 52
1.00 Goals expected (xG) 1.86
0.63 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.14

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1El Gaish64117:313
2Arab Contractors (Al Mokawloon)63219:511
3Enppi63127:510
4Pharco FC63038:109
5Ghazl El Mahallah62224:48
6Al Ahly62047:96
7Ceramica Cleopatra61052:83
PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Petrojet650115:515
2El Gouna641110:513
3Wadi Degla631212:610
4National Bank Egypt614111:77
5El Ismaily61235:75
6Modern Sport61233:75
7Pyramids61053:223
PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Al Masry63215:311
2ZED FC63126:410
3Al Ittihad Alexandria61505:28
4Kahrabaa Ismailia615012:118
5Smouha62224:58
6Zamalek62137:97
7Haras El Hodood60244:92