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Gillingham vs Grimsby

England England

League Two 2025/2026 Priestfield Stadium, Gillingham
Our Tip

Match Events

42' Event
Cook A.
Assist: Green K.
45'
Amaluzor J.
45'
Little A.

AI Match Summary

Grimsby in this League Two 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 1-4 — backing the pre-match view that favored Grimsby.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

18%
Gillingham
22%
Draws
60%
Grimsby
Draw rate projection: 22% Favored: Grimsby

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

82% / Very High Confidence
  • Gillingham haven't matched Grimsby's recent run of results.
  • Grimsby are the model's pick here, at 60%.
  • Regular League Two 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 65.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32%
Gillingham Clean Sheet 12%
Grimsby Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Gillingham Grimsby
Matches Played 30 29
Wins 9 14
Draws 5 9
Losses 16 6
Goals Scored 1.14 1.88
Goals Conceded 1.57 1.13
Expected Goals (xG) 1.14 1.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.57 1.13

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 18, 2026 League Two
Gillingham vs Grimsby
1:4
Oct 18, 2025 League Two
Grimsby vs Gillingham
1:0
Jan 28, 2025 League Two
Grimsby vs Gillingham
1:1
Oct 1, 2024 League Two
Gillingham vs Grimsby
0:1
Mar 16, 2024 League Two
Gillingham vs Grimsby
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Gillingham Compare

Top Goalscorer McCleary G.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.88
Avg xA / game 0.57

Grimsby Compare

Top Goalscorer Cook A.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Kabia J.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.71
Avg xA / game 1.04

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Gillingham 19 / 100
Grimsby 68 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Gillingham Grimsby

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick GRI Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Gillingham scored in 67% of their last 30 outings.

H2H data points to 2.20 goals as a typical output.

Recent resilience: Gillingham stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Grimsby let in goals in 59% of their last 29 matches.

Scoring Trends

Gillingham VS Grimsby
1.14 Goals Scored 1.88
1.57 Goals Conceded 1.13
43% Over 1.5 88%
43% Over 2.5 75%
29% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Gillingham

(Home)
21 Jul
Gillingham
1 : 0
Millwall
18 Jul
Gillingham
0 : 1
Charlton
14 Jul
Dover Ath.
0 : 3
Gillingham
02 May
Gillingham
1 : 0
Shrewsbury
25 Apr
Barnet
6 : 2
Gillingham
Page 1 of 6

Grimsby

(Away)
29 Jul
Boston United
0 : 0
Grimsby
28 Jul
Grimsby
5 : 1
Lincoln City
25 Jul
Hartlepool
0 : 3
Grimsby
18 Jul
Zorya
1 : 1
Grimsby
11 Jul
Cleethorpes
0 : 0
Grimsby
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Bromley462415771:4687
2Milton Keynes Dons462414886:4586
3Cambridge Utd462216866:3382
4Salford462561561:5181
5Notts County462481474:5280
6Chesterfield462116971:5679
7Grimsby4622121274:5078
8Barnet4621131270:5376
9Swindon462291570:5975
10Oldham4618141460:4468
11Crewe4619101764:5867
12Colchester4618121662:4966
13Walsall4618111756:5665
14Bristol Rovers461952256:6562
15Fleetwood Town4615161557:5861
16Accrington4614112147:5853
17Gillingham4613141953:7253
18Cheltenham4614102253:7952
19Shrewsbury4613102342:6949
20Newport461272748:7743
21Tranmere4610112554:7941
22Crawley Town468162244:6840
23Harrogate461092739:6839
24Barrow46992845:7836
Promotion - League One (Main)
Promotion - League Two 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Relegation - National League (Main)