Sport Picks

India

IFA Shield EMS Stadium

Mohun Bagan

Our Tip

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Heatmaps Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Gokulam play Mohun Bagan in the IFA Shield. It looks like a close match. Recently, Gokulam averaged 1.53 goals scored and 1.97 conceded. Mohun Bagan averaged 1.86 goals scored and 0.72 conceded. In past meetings, Gokulam won 1, Mohun Bagan won 3, and they drew 1. Their last match on Oct 9, 2025 ended 1:5. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.06 for Gokulam and 1.56 for Mohun Bagan. This points to a Mohun Bagan double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

30%

Gokulam

18%

Draws

52%

Mohun Bagan

Draw rate projection: 18% Favored: Mohun Bagan

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

79% / High Confidence

Gokulam picked up more points recently compared to Mohun Bagan.
Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.06 vs 1.56 xG).
Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 57%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%

Over 1.5 Goals 76%

Over 2.5 Goals 57%

Over 3.5 Goals 34%

Over 4.5 Goals 17%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 52%

Gokulam Clean Sheet 15%

Mohun Bagan Clean Sheet 14%

First Half Goal 68%

Second Half Goal 72%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Gokulam	Mohun Bagan
Matches Played	30	29
Wins	11	18
Draws	3	7
Losses	16	4
Goals Scored	1.53	1.86
Goals Conceded	1.97	0.72
Expected Goals (xG)	1.38	0.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	2.25	0.75

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 9, 2025 IFA Shield

Gokulam vs Mohun Bagan

Possession: 43% - 58% Cards: 1 - 0

1:5

Apr 10, 2023 Super Cup

Mohun Bagan vs Gokulam

Possession: 53% - 51% Cards: 3 - 4

5:1

May 18, 2022 AFC Cup

Gokulam vs Mohun Bagan

Possession: 43% - 51% Cards: 3 - 0

4:2

Apr 12, 2020 I-League

Gokulam vs Mohun Bagan

Possession: 58% - 56% Cards: 1 - 3

0:0

Dec 16, 2019 I-League

Mohun Bagan vs Gokulam

Possession: 54% - 59% Cards: 1 - 0

2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Gokulam Compare

Avg xG / game 1.06

Avg xA / game 0.69

Mohun Bagan Compare

Top Goalscorer Maclaren J.

2 Goals

Assists Leader Robinho

2 Ast

Avg xG / game 0.8

Avg xA / game 0.49

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Gokulam 30 / 100

Mohun Bagan 50 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Gokulam Mohun Bagan

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Mohun Bagan or Draw (X2)

Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals

First Half Result Draw (HT)

BTTS Outcome No (NG)

Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win

Value Edge +36.5%

4.55

Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals

Value Edge +11.7%

1.96

*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Gokulam attacking → ← attacking Mohun Bagan

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Gokulam scored in 67% of their last 30 games.

Mohun Bagan let in goals in 61% of their last 28 matches.

Games between these two average 4.20 goals.

Gokulam went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Mohun Bagan lost 0 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

36 Points in last 5 61

1.38 Goals expected (xG) 0.88

2.25 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 0.75

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	L	GD	Pts
1	East Bengal	2	2	0	6:0	6
2	Namdhari	2	1	1	3:2	3
3	Sreenidi Deccan	2	0	2	0:7	0

Pos	Team	P	W	L	GD	Pts
1	Mohun Bagan	2	2	0	7:1	6
2	United SC	2	1	1	1:2	3
3	Gokulam	2	0	2	1:6	0