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Gondomar vs Regua

Portugal Portugal

Campeonato de Portugal - Group B 2024/2025
Our Tip

Match Events

20' Event
Nogueira Madureira C. F.
90'
Lobo Y.

AI Match Summary

The Campeonato de Portugal - Group B 2024/2025 game between Gondomar and Regua finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Gondomar.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

58%
Gondomar
30%
Draws
12%
Regua
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Gondomar

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

58% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Gondomar come out ahead of Regua on wins alone.
  • Win probability leans Gondomar's way, sitting at 70%.
  • Regular Campeonato de Portugal - Group B 2024/2025 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • Gondomar have won 3 of the last 3 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 44%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 24.8%
Gondomar Clean Sheet 68%
Regua Clean Sheet 14%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Gondomar Regua
Matches Played 30 29
Wins 11 2
Draws 7 5
Losses 12 22
Goals Scored 0.67 0.66
Goals Conceded 0.97 2
Expected Goals (xG) 1.06 0.69
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 16, 2025 Campeonato de Portugal - Group B
Regua vs Gondomar
0:1
Nov 30, 2024 Campeonato de Portugal - Group B
Gondomar vs Regua
1:0
Sep 3, 2017 Taça de Portugal
Regua vs Gondomar
1:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Gondomar Compare

Top Goalscorer Nogueira Madureira C. F.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.82
Avg xA / game 0.53

Regua Compare

Avg xG / game 0.63
Avg xA / game 0.38

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Gondomar 77 / 100
Regua 15 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Gondomar Regua

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Gondomar Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Regua's defensive record shows goals conceded in 93% of 29 matches.

H2H data points to 2.00 goals as a typical output.

Solid form: Gondomar remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Regua's recent record shows 4 losses from the last 5 matches.

Scoring Trends

Gondomar VS Regua
0.63 Goals Scored 0.5
0.88 Goals Conceded 1.5
50% Over 1.5 38%
13% Over 2.5 38%
13% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Gondomar

(Home)
13 Apr
Gondomar
0 : 0
Coimbroes
06 Apr
AD Marco 09
1 : 0
Gondomar
29 Mar
Gondomar
0 : 0
Camacha
16 Mar
Regua
0 : 1
Gondomar
09 Mar
Gondomar
0 : 2
Leca
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Regua

(Away)
13 Apr
Guarda FC
1 : 1
Regua
06 Apr
Regua
0 : 3
SC Salgueiros
30 Mar
Uniao Lamas
2 : 1
Regua
16 Mar
Regua
0 : 1
Gondomar
09 Mar
Maritimo B
1 : 0
Regua
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Leca 26 19 5 2 52:17 62
2 AD Marco 09 26 16 5 5 35:16 53
3 SC Salgueiros 26 16 5 5 39:18 53
4 Cinfaes 26 11 8 7 33:25 41
5 Beira Mar 26 10 9 7 31:28 39
6 Uniao Lamas 26 11 5 10 31:27 38
7 FC Alpendorada 26 10 6 10 26:24 36
8 Machico 26 9 8 9 28:27 35
9 Camacha 26 8 11 7 30:35 35
10 Guarda FC 26 9 5 12 26:30 32
11 Gondomar 26 8 7 11 16:28 31
12 Coimbroes 26 5 6 15 24:43 21
13 Maritimo B 26 4 5 17 25:49 17
14 Regua 26 1 5 20 16:45 8
Promotion - Campeonato de Portugal - Group A 2024/2025 (Promotion Group)